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  • Yeah mate sorry, ive been busy. Ill get back today/tomorrow, but from what i read at the start Ive felt exactly the same way before so we should have lots to discuss. Sorry to keep you waiting, NS.
    Part 2

    On the topic of the guide, its currently being stalled by data validity. By that i mean that a lot of the major online pokedexes have different values for the appearance rate of some many pokemon. I trust marriland more than sppf, so i asked marriland why i should trust his data instead of other online dexes. Once i have the source of the data, i will do the resources, then the guide. So i probably wont get anything to you for a while, because ill be doing the boring work of compiling route stats, and comparing appearance rates. But i will work on it!

    Part 1

    Well here's my opinions of what happens in the game when you chain (very basic since i dont actually know the details).

    When you reset the radar:

    One patch is assigned randomly to each ring
    The position of the patches determines the pattern-based part of the chance for the chain continuing. (The stuff you were talking about Eg. a pair = -10%).
    Depending on the pattern chance, the appearance rate is taken into consideration to determine what patches contain the chained pokemon.

    ^ Thats kind of using the pattern/app rate relationship, and i do think the process is a lot more complicated than the 'thoery' i proposed.
    Post 3

    This would explain the 99% pattern - the impact of the pattern is very high, therefore the impact of appearance rate is very low. If you take a 70% app rate pokemon, and a 1% app rate pokemon, and both have a 99% pattern, the sucess rate of the patch would be higher for the 70% pokemon, but only slightly, and very low rate pokemon can easily continue with the pattern. Eg [probably wouldnt be like this] a 70% poke could have 99.70% continuation rate with a 99% patch, whereas a 1% poke would have 99.01%.

    So, what do you think of that theory (inverse relationship b/w pattern and appearance rate in patch determination)? Also BTW, you use the term 'made me questionate'. Its actually just 'made me question'. Another odd term in the english language.

    Post 2

    I'm guessing there is a very complex formula that determines how many patches contain the chained pokemon, and which patches have the chained pokemon. To try and answer your question about 99% patterns, i will use some observations:
    No matter what the appearance rate of the pokemon is, with the right pattern, the chain is heavily weighted to suceed if you go in the right patch.
    When there isnt a pattern that greatly ups the success rate, the continuation of the chain seems to be down to the appearance rate of the pokemon.
    *i kind of had a breakthrough feeling when writing this, probably like when you were at school*
    What if appearance rate and arrangement of patches are the 2 dominant determinants of what patches contain? And they have somewhat of an inverse relationship? Eg When the impact of the pattern is low, appearance rate is a big factor in patch determination - and when the impact of the pattern is high, appearance rate isnt very pivotal in patch determination.
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