I'm honestly expecting Horizons to be its own thing and not have anyone from Ash's Journey in the show
I'm even expecting that if any of the gym leaders Ash knows well (Brock, Clemont, Korrina, Bea, etc...) appear in Horizons, the writers would either make it ambiguous on whether it is the same universe as Ash's Journey or rewrite their character to fit with Horizons and show that the Gym Leader is not the same one Ash met
With how it has been going so far, I think that the continuity stuff will be kept ambiguous for the first year or so of Horizons unless someone mentions Ash. And this doesn't even have to be by name. It could just be something like "the new monarch."
Based on that, I think that, they'll actively avoid places that are heavily connected to the Ash saga (e.g. Melemele Island) and those where important characters from that saga currently are (e.g. Pewter City with Brock) until the timeline has been revealed rather than rewrite certain characters.
I think if we're ever going to get anything that deals with Ash at all, much less Serena, it would be a movie (Unless Pokemon decides to throw in a random curveball and make some sort of mini-series and/or web series involving Ash)
I think that Ash's appearances in the future will mostly be in special episodes plus the occasional appearance in Horizons and future series. I think that he won't be in every single series from now on, but Ash showing up during HZ is something that I think is quite likely while the chances for him showing up in future series are getting lower the further we're getting away from the Ash saga.
As for movies I think that:
1) they're done with them or
2) they'll feature Liko and Roy if they decide to make new ones
What reason would there even be for the companions to reappear?
Marketing for the next remakes and/or the next Legends game.
I could maybe see Goh making a return as his VA is still on the show but most of the other companions, especially May and Max are very unlikely to return.
In hindsight my original post wasn't ideally worded in that regard, but I don't think that we'll see all of them as we just had Journeys. I think that it's going to be a small selection of them.
It’s certainly odd that they don’t capitalize on the “popularity” of amourshipping. Not enough green for them?
I think that this is tied to MPM's open ending which, imo, feels like an excuse to keep the option to bring Ash back as the protagonist if HZ is a flop. Making Amour canon would make it harder for them to reintroduce him.
If Horizons is successful enough to make them completely move on from Ash as the protagonist for the series, I can see them making Amour fully canon in 2026 for the 10th anniversary of the kiss and capitalize on its popularity then.