Well, Gladion is definitely beating Kaki. Which means that Ash's next two opponents are Guzma>Gladion. I want him to win both and actually win the league for a change but he could actually lose at either match tbh.
They probably don't want Guzma to completely win the league but Gladion is there at the finals to stop him so the door is open for Ash to lose this tbh. Even if Guzma could beat Gladion, Kukui would beat him afterwards so that's still a possibility.
I'd put the Ash vs Guzma odds at 70-30, the Gladion vs Kaki odds at 95-5. For the final I'd put Gladion vs Ash at 70-30, Gladion vs Guzma at 80-20, Kaki vs Ash at 50-50 and Kaki vs Guzma at 50-50.
As for Royal Mask, I'd say it's 100-0 against Guzma and 95-5 against everyone else. Our boy, Ash's chances are slim