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Rajon Rondo's still got it
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Nba/ncaab 2018-2019
- Thread starter ebevan91
- Start date
GhostAnime
Searching for her...
(6) New Orleans Pelicans versus (2) Golden State Warriors
This series is tricky at first because we don't know the true status of Curry, but I'm going to look at this as if he doesn't play a single game which is the worst case scenario.
Just like with the Minnesota and Houston series, I feel like there's a math problem not enough people are talking about on New Orleans's end. They're not prolific from three in percentage or attempts (20th-22th). Admittedly, Golden State has been disappointing offensively on that end themselves because outside of Durant and Thompson, every other shooter is essentially unreliable. As a team, they shot 33.6% in that San Antonio series.
So, the plan for New Orleans' has to at least be this: shoot better or equal from three with Golden State and the only way they'll be able to do this is by defending because I can't imagine their three-point offense improving against a top defensive caliber team. Does New Orleans have the personnel to pass most of those shots from Durant and Thompson to the rest of the team? Will the rest of the team be cold?
Maybe a better way to phrase all of this is whose supporting cast do you trust to make big plays?
New Orleans has been successful largely because of their guard tandem of Rondo and Holiday, but the length and speed of Durant, Green, McGee, and Iguodala is an entirely different look from Portland. Much of their scoring has been through transition or just bad individual defense and team help. Also, Golden State is less dependent on the play of their point guards (assuming Curry is not in the series). Durant and Thompson totally take away their defensive advantages with their size.
Conversely, Golden State has multiple bodies to throw at Davis. Optimistically, if we want New Orleans to win this series, he has to consistently be the best player, and Holiday and Rondo have to be the third and fourth best.
I'm not sure what path Gentry takes as far as strategetic planning considering his math problem; maybe it's simpler than I think and it's as easy as New Orleans forcing plenty of missed threes and going up and down the floor, but those are still twos.
I think Golden State's defense as its best is just a little bit better here. I'm not assuming Davis will be stopped; I'm assuming that it's more likely Golden State's team defense shuts down the supporting cast than the other way around.
Golden State wins if: Their team defense is too much, New Orleans supporting cast can't stack up, the math problem from three shows itself, no good cover for Durant or Thompson.
New Orleans wins if: Golden State struggles notably from three, especially Green and Iguodala, Holiday shows himself once again against Thompson, Davis is a monster and probably gets Green in serious foul trouble
Golden State in six.
(1) Houston Rockets versus (5) Utah Jazz
This will be a long tough series for either team.
Both are great at what they do on the opposite ends. Utah defends what Houston does well (pick and roll & isolations), and that's as positive as it's going to get for Utah I'm afraid because Houston scores an amount on isolations absurd enough to the point where even if you defend them, you still might be losing the battle.
I noticed Utah was a bit bothered by Oklahoma City's switches around the latter part of the series; assuming Moute plays, they may be in serious trouble offensively.
Houston may not necessarily have an answer for Gobert's rolls to the rim or just the general size of Utah's frontcourt. The key to this series to me will be these two things:
Number one, can Utah stop Houston from shooting threes? Here's that math issue again: Houston takes more and makes more on average, and so as long as that's happening, their odds of winning increase dramatically. Much of Utah's defense is dependent on Gobert, and if he's out there guarding in space or switched onto Harden or Paul, he's useless. Utah has to find a way to keep Gobert defending the rim or they have to find a way to defend when he's not at the rim.
Number two, how far can Mitchell go? He's had some big scoring games the last two playoff mostly due to Oklahoma City's switches. Can you continue that or better yet, take it a new level of dominance against Houston? It will certainly be necessary in order for Utah's offense to potentially keep up. The best case scenario is Mitchell does his best to go at Harden. Truthfully, he is the only good isolation player Utah has.
We could talk about backcourt defense relating to Ingles, Rubio (who is effectively done most likely), and Crowder, but a part of me doesn't think they can individually defend Harden and Paul. Ingles is a great defender when a system comes together but I've never known him or Crowder to be good in space. Also, while Houston has been historically known for their turnover percentage the past few years, throughout the first round, they've actually improved in taking care of the ball. It would seem like having the addition of Paul alone helps maximize their offensive efficiency in comparison to past years. Harden gets rest, and Paul is one of the best turnover/assist guys around the league. Utah's defense isn't exactly dependent on turnovers but it certainly fuels it and their offense. Paul is a hard guy to win that turnover battle with due to just how smart he is.
So then the key is pretty much Houston making their shots from their least guys (Moute, Tucker, Ariza) to give Harden and Paul space to take advantage of Gobert guarding friggin forwards. If it works for a series, Houston's got it in the bag. I love Mitchell, but I don't know if depending on him offensively is a good recipe against a team with at least a system. It's a predictable system, but a system nonetheless.
To tell you the truth, if Houston dominates or finishes this series quickly, folks need to be very, very afraid. Utah is no slouch.
Houston wins if: Gobert can't be effective against Houston's small line-ups of death, they can't slow the tempo, contain Paul & Harden through the mid-range, and offensively keep up with Houston's threes.
Utah wins if: They dominate the glass, Gobert is a net positive against small lineups, Mitchell can't be guarded, Houston's forwards can't buy a basket, Paul & Harden can't get going again Utah's superb isolation defenders.
Houston in seven
(3) Philadelphia Sixers versus (2) Boston Celtics
Hard to predict because there's a lot of defensive match-up combinations either coach can try. Simmons might be guarded by anybody from Smart to Horford. Horford and Embid may not even see each other, or Baynes may prove to be worth his salt one-on-one. Redick may be defending friggin' point guards.
Both teams have similar rosters as far as size, athleticism, and height. The difference comes in though with skillset and talent. I'm not going to spend too much time on coaching strategy with this one.
Philadelphia undoubtedly has the better talent, but Boston has the better coaching. I think conventionally, you have to lean Philadelphia because Milwaukee couldn't have been that much of a good team this year. Yeah, I predicted them to win, but that's because I sold Boston shorter than I sold Milwaukee; they still let that team take them to seven games. I honestly don't think Philadelphia would have let that happen.
As good as Boston is defensively talented, they still have trouble scoring, and Philadelphia's defense is top-notch with Embid on the floor. Smart is the x-factor on the wings because while he can be a pest to Philadephia's key offensive cog in Redick, if Smart or Tatum (shooting way below his season average in the playoffs) are not making their shots, Simmons or Covington are going to play free safety all over the floor and muck up Boston's offense enough to play to the quick pace of Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Redick has to score and not be a defensive liability on the other end. Bledsoe got thrashed in round 1, and Philadelphia lacks a legit point guard defender. Redick is your best option and if it isn't him, he still has to not be defensively challenged by the athleticism of Boston's wings.
Philadelphia needs to figure out quick how to use Embid if regular season numbers indicate anything about this match-up. Theis played him defensively the best, so him being injured is a big help. All you have left are Baynes, Horford, and Ojeleye. It's truly hard to figure out how Embid will play against this line-up but I'm going to assume he'll be okay over the course of a series. Horford, the most versatile center, might possibly be overwhelmed. Baynes is slow, and Ojeleye is undersized.
All signs point to this series becoming a chess match. I don't know what's the first move, next move, or last move; but I can think about the most powerful moves. Whoever figures out the best line-up offensively without giving up anything or the best line up defensively without having offensive liabilities... will win the series. My bet is that it will be Philadelphia for a couple of reasons: 1) Embid is the best two-way player on either team 2) Boston has shown to offensively struggle against teams who switch and have like-sized guys as displayed against Milwaukee in the first round 3) Philadephia has a 6'10" passer which makes an offense that much harder to break through. The intangibles are in Philadelphia's favor but only marginally.
Philadelphia wins if: Redick is not a defensive liability and isn't struggling to score against Boston's athletic wing, Embid can't be stopped, Horford is neutralized, Simmons can dance around Horford or Smart. Talent beat coaching.
Boston wins if: Redick can't hide defensively, Smart is causing a ruckus with Philadelphia's shooters in general, Horford is either making an impact on Simmons or Embid. The Boston guards and forwards still manage to create offense against Philadelphia's taller wings.
Philadelphia in seven.
This series is tricky at first because we don't know the true status of Curry, but I'm going to look at this as if he doesn't play a single game which is the worst case scenario.
Just like with the Minnesota and Houston series, I feel like there's a math problem not enough people are talking about on New Orleans's end. They're not prolific from three in percentage or attempts (20th-22th). Admittedly, Golden State has been disappointing offensively on that end themselves because outside of Durant and Thompson, every other shooter is essentially unreliable. As a team, they shot 33.6% in that San Antonio series.
So, the plan for New Orleans' has to at least be this: shoot better or equal from three with Golden State and the only way they'll be able to do this is by defending because I can't imagine their three-point offense improving against a top defensive caliber team. Does New Orleans have the personnel to pass most of those shots from Durant and Thompson to the rest of the team? Will the rest of the team be cold?
Maybe a better way to phrase all of this is whose supporting cast do you trust to make big plays?
New Orleans has been successful largely because of their guard tandem of Rondo and Holiday, but the length and speed of Durant, Green, McGee, and Iguodala is an entirely different look from Portland. Much of their scoring has been through transition or just bad individual defense and team help. Also, Golden State is less dependent on the play of their point guards (assuming Curry is not in the series). Durant and Thompson totally take away their defensive advantages with their size.
Conversely, Golden State has multiple bodies to throw at Davis. Optimistically, if we want New Orleans to win this series, he has to consistently be the best player, and Holiday and Rondo have to be the third and fourth best.
I'm not sure what path Gentry takes as far as strategetic planning considering his math problem; maybe it's simpler than I think and it's as easy as New Orleans forcing plenty of missed threes and going up and down the floor, but those are still twos.
I think Golden State's defense as its best is just a little bit better here. I'm not assuming Davis will be stopped; I'm assuming that it's more likely Golden State's team defense shuts down the supporting cast than the other way around.
Golden State wins if: Their team defense is too much, New Orleans supporting cast can't stack up, the math problem from three shows itself, no good cover for Durant or Thompson.
New Orleans wins if: Golden State struggles notably from three, especially Green and Iguodala, Holiday shows himself once again against Thompson, Davis is a monster and probably gets Green in serious foul trouble
Golden State in six.
(1) Houston Rockets versus (5) Utah Jazz
This will be a long tough series for either team.
Both are great at what they do on the opposite ends. Utah defends what Houston does well (pick and roll & isolations), and that's as positive as it's going to get for Utah I'm afraid because Houston scores an amount on isolations absurd enough to the point where even if you defend them, you still might be losing the battle.
I noticed Utah was a bit bothered by Oklahoma City's switches around the latter part of the series; assuming Moute plays, they may be in serious trouble offensively.
Houston may not necessarily have an answer for Gobert's rolls to the rim or just the general size of Utah's frontcourt. The key to this series to me will be these two things:
Number one, can Utah stop Houston from shooting threes? Here's that math issue again: Houston takes more and makes more on average, and so as long as that's happening, their odds of winning increase dramatically. Much of Utah's defense is dependent on Gobert, and if he's out there guarding in space or switched onto Harden or Paul, he's useless. Utah has to find a way to keep Gobert defending the rim or they have to find a way to defend when he's not at the rim.
Number two, how far can Mitchell go? He's had some big scoring games the last two playoff mostly due to Oklahoma City's switches. Can you continue that or better yet, take it a new level of dominance against Houston? It will certainly be necessary in order for Utah's offense to potentially keep up. The best case scenario is Mitchell does his best to go at Harden. Truthfully, he is the only good isolation player Utah has.
We could talk about backcourt defense relating to Ingles, Rubio (who is effectively done most likely), and Crowder, but a part of me doesn't think they can individually defend Harden and Paul. Ingles is a great defender when a system comes together but I've never known him or Crowder to be good in space. Also, while Houston has been historically known for their turnover percentage the past few years, throughout the first round, they've actually improved in taking care of the ball. It would seem like having the addition of Paul alone helps maximize their offensive efficiency in comparison to past years. Harden gets rest, and Paul is one of the best turnover/assist guys around the league. Utah's defense isn't exactly dependent on turnovers but it certainly fuels it and their offense. Paul is a hard guy to win that turnover battle with due to just how smart he is.
So then the key is pretty much Houston making their shots from their least guys (Moute, Tucker, Ariza) to give Harden and Paul space to take advantage of Gobert guarding friggin forwards. If it works for a series, Houston's got it in the bag. I love Mitchell, but I don't know if depending on him offensively is a good recipe against a team with at least a system. It's a predictable system, but a system nonetheless.
To tell you the truth, if Houston dominates or finishes this series quickly, folks need to be very, very afraid. Utah is no slouch.
Houston wins if: Gobert can't be effective against Houston's small line-ups of death, they can't slow the tempo, contain Paul & Harden through the mid-range, and offensively keep up with Houston's threes.
Utah wins if: They dominate the glass, Gobert is a net positive against small lineups, Mitchell can't be guarded, Houston's forwards can't buy a basket, Paul & Harden can't get going again Utah's superb isolation defenders.
Houston in seven
(3) Philadelphia Sixers versus (2) Boston Celtics
Hard to predict because there's a lot of defensive match-up combinations either coach can try. Simmons might be guarded by anybody from Smart to Horford. Horford and Embid may not even see each other, or Baynes may prove to be worth his salt one-on-one. Redick may be defending friggin' point guards.
Both teams have similar rosters as far as size, athleticism, and height. The difference comes in though with skillset and talent. I'm not going to spend too much time on coaching strategy with this one.
Philadelphia undoubtedly has the better talent, but Boston has the better coaching. I think conventionally, you have to lean Philadelphia because Milwaukee couldn't have been that much of a good team this year. Yeah, I predicted them to win, but that's because I sold Boston shorter than I sold Milwaukee; they still let that team take them to seven games. I honestly don't think Philadelphia would have let that happen.
As good as Boston is defensively talented, they still have trouble scoring, and Philadelphia's defense is top-notch with Embid on the floor. Smart is the x-factor on the wings because while he can be a pest to Philadephia's key offensive cog in Redick, if Smart or Tatum (shooting way below his season average in the playoffs) are not making their shots, Simmons or Covington are going to play free safety all over the floor and muck up Boston's offense enough to play to the quick pace of Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Redick has to score and not be a defensive liability on the other end. Bledsoe got thrashed in round 1, and Philadelphia lacks a legit point guard defender. Redick is your best option and if it isn't him, he still has to not be defensively challenged by the athleticism of Boston's wings.
Philadelphia needs to figure out quick how to use Embid if regular season numbers indicate anything about this match-up. Theis played him defensively the best, so him being injured is a big help. All you have left are Baynes, Horford, and Ojeleye. It's truly hard to figure out how Embid will play against this line-up but I'm going to assume he'll be okay over the course of a series. Horford, the most versatile center, might possibly be overwhelmed. Baynes is slow, and Ojeleye is undersized.
All signs point to this series becoming a chess match. I don't know what's the first move, next move, or last move; but I can think about the most powerful moves. Whoever figures out the best line-up offensively without giving up anything or the best line up defensively without having offensive liabilities... will win the series. My bet is that it will be Philadelphia for a couple of reasons: 1) Embid is the best two-way player on either team 2) Boston has shown to offensively struggle against teams who switch and have like-sized guys as displayed against Milwaukee in the first round 3) Philadephia has a 6'10" passer which makes an offense that much harder to break through. The intangibles are in Philadelphia's favor but only marginally.
Philadelphia wins if: Redick is not a defensive liability and isn't struggling to score against Boston's athletic wing, Embid can't be stopped, Horford is neutralized, Simmons can dance around Horford or Smart. Talent beat coaching.
Boston wins if: Redick can't hide defensively, Smart is causing a ruckus with Philadelphia's shooters in general, Horford is either making an impact on Simmons or Embid. The Boston guards and forwards still manage to create offense against Philadelphia's taller wings.
Philadelphia in seven.
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GhostAnime
Searching for her...
(1) Toronto Raptors versus (4) Cleveland Cavaliers III: The Bench Broskis Attack
There is no reliable way to predict this series, but I'm going to attempt to anyway.
By every statistical metric, Toronto this regular season, as well as the post-season, have shown themselves to be the superior team to Cleveland. The stats bear that out, and Cleveland has deteriorated way below their regular season numbers in the first round. Cleveland had the lowest point differential winning a series in over 20 years. Out of all the teams remaining in the playoffs, Cleveland has the worst offensive and defensive numbers. And this is with LeBron dominating the series at an individual level.
And yet, they could still easily win this series because LeBron defies all math. Always has. Essentially, we are seeing the best version of Toronto versus the worst version of Cleveland since LeBron's return. Where do you stand?
Just like Philadelphia/Boston series, this one is even harder to think about because this Cleveland roster has not been seen enough in the regular season, and the unpredictability of LeBron's performance in the face of math is beyond me. Also, the potential line-ups Toronto could throw out is another huge variable. Both of these teams have match-up issues with each other, and momentum will easily swing from game to game.
I think the first variable I should bring up is Valancianas. Him staying on the floor for Toronto would do wonders for their chances of winning. Last year, he was a huge problem with Kevin Love at center. The way he played in the first round is certainly promising because Washington did try to go small, and he played in key fourth-quarter stretches. Can he replicate that in this series against LeBron and Love? If he can, +1 for Toronto because Cleveland has no rim protection to speak of.
The next variable is Toronto's bench. Van Vleet is important to watch going forward. If George Hill struggles, LeBron has no other player on that team who can handle the ball and/or create their own shot. Toronto has DeRozan, Lowry, Van Vleet, Delon Wright, and arguably Norman Powell. They have so many options to go to and their two star guards can rest, play off-the-ball, and take over at their own comfort. If the bench can give quality minutes, quality offense and defense, you would then be asking LeBron to play 45 minutes a game initiating every play and somehow being more efficient than young guys with rest over a seven game series. Man, I know LeBron is one of the greatest players to ever play the game, but that would simply be inhuman.
The final important variable in all of this is... how will Casey decide to handle LeBron. LeBron feasted on Toronto's defense throughout the regular season, but OG was still his best bet.
OG: 1.09 points per possession
Siakam: 1.23
Anyone else: 1.54
He did fantastic against Wall and sometimes Beal in the first round, but LeBron is a different beast. What is the most effective course of action? One-on-one defense, hug shooters, and let LeBron tire himself out? Do you pose a line-up of ballhandlers and try to let LeBron work at every turn? Do you trap and dare his struggling shooters to beat you? All of these strategies sound okay to try, and I imagine he'll do a mix of coverages.
So, that's the gist of it. We can statistically see how this series should go, but choosing against LeBron even at this point in his career with this team is still considered foolish to many. I think the major difference between this struggling Cleveland team and year's past is that LeBron's rest is less, the team's stats are worse, and the supporting cast has yet to contribute in any meaningful way (no one has scored more than 20 other than LeBron and we're friggin seven games in).
Toronto has improved three consecutive seasons and Cleveland has deteriorated in almost three consecutive seasons. At some point, the perceived difference between these teams has to switch sides, and LeBron has to snap. I've always been wary of predicting when that would happen, but if somebody was going to choose when, this is the best time in history we could.
Toronto wins if: Valancianus can stay on the floor, Van Vleet makes a major impact, DeRozan and Lowry finally trust their teammates and beat the traps that have haunted them for years, Toronto's depth proves too much.
Cleveland wins if: LeBron defies all stats once again, Kevin Love makes Valancianus ineffective, somebody on that supporting has stepped up (most notably, George Hill or some other guard).
Toronto in six.
There is no reliable way to predict this series, but I'm going to attempt to anyway.
By every statistical metric, Toronto this regular season, as well as the post-season, have shown themselves to be the superior team to Cleveland. The stats bear that out, and Cleveland has deteriorated way below their regular season numbers in the first round. Cleveland had the lowest point differential winning a series in over 20 years. Out of all the teams remaining in the playoffs, Cleveland has the worst offensive and defensive numbers. And this is with LeBron dominating the series at an individual level.
And yet, they could still easily win this series because LeBron defies all math. Always has. Essentially, we are seeing the best version of Toronto versus the worst version of Cleveland since LeBron's return. Where do you stand?
Just like Philadelphia/Boston series, this one is even harder to think about because this Cleveland roster has not been seen enough in the regular season, and the unpredictability of LeBron's performance in the face of math is beyond me. Also, the potential line-ups Toronto could throw out is another huge variable. Both of these teams have match-up issues with each other, and momentum will easily swing from game to game.
I think the first variable I should bring up is Valancianas. Him staying on the floor for Toronto would do wonders for their chances of winning. Last year, he was a huge problem with Kevin Love at center. The way he played in the first round is certainly promising because Washington did try to go small, and he played in key fourth-quarter stretches. Can he replicate that in this series against LeBron and Love? If he can, +1 for Toronto because Cleveland has no rim protection to speak of.
The next variable is Toronto's bench. Van Vleet is important to watch going forward. If George Hill struggles, LeBron has no other player on that team who can handle the ball and/or create their own shot. Toronto has DeRozan, Lowry, Van Vleet, Delon Wright, and arguably Norman Powell. They have so many options to go to and their two star guards can rest, play off-the-ball, and take over at their own comfort. If the bench can give quality minutes, quality offense and defense, you would then be asking LeBron to play 45 minutes a game initiating every play and somehow being more efficient than young guys with rest over a seven game series. Man, I know LeBron is one of the greatest players to ever play the game, but that would simply be inhuman.
The final important variable in all of this is... how will Casey decide to handle LeBron. LeBron feasted on Toronto's defense throughout the regular season, but OG was still his best bet.
OG: 1.09 points per possession
Siakam: 1.23
Anyone else: 1.54
He did fantastic against Wall and sometimes Beal in the first round, but LeBron is a different beast. What is the most effective course of action? One-on-one defense, hug shooters, and let LeBron tire himself out? Do you pose a line-up of ballhandlers and try to let LeBron work at every turn? Do you trap and dare his struggling shooters to beat you? All of these strategies sound okay to try, and I imagine he'll do a mix of coverages.
So, that's the gist of it. We can statistically see how this series should go, but choosing against LeBron even at this point in his career with this team is still considered foolish to many. I think the major difference between this struggling Cleveland team and year's past is that LeBron's rest is less, the team's stats are worse, and the supporting cast has yet to contribute in any meaningful way (no one has scored more than 20 other than LeBron and we're friggin seven games in).
Toronto has improved three consecutive seasons and Cleveland has deteriorated in almost three consecutive seasons. At some point, the perceived difference between these teams has to switch sides, and LeBron has to snap. I've always been wary of predicting when that would happen, but if somebody was going to choose when, this is the best time in history we could.
Toronto wins if: Valancianus can stay on the floor, Van Vleet makes a major impact, DeRozan and Lowry finally trust their teammates and beat the traps that have haunted them for years, Toronto's depth proves too much.
Cleveland wins if: LeBron defies all stats once again, Kevin Love makes Valancianus ineffective, somebody on that supporting has stepped up (most notably, George Hill or some other guard).
Toronto in six.
GhostAnime
Searching for her...
Eastern Conference Finals
(2) Boston Celtics versus (4) Cleveland Cavaliers
*A new coaching staff hiree is about to sit down in his first coach staff meeting with the Boston Celtics*
Hiree: (Oh boy, I can't wait to learn the secrets of the great mind Brad Stevens. I'm finally going to learn what it takes to really stop the generational player LeBron James...)
Celtics Assistant Coach: You may all sit.
*Stevens enters and applause is given*
Stevens: Thank you.
Hiree:
Stevens: Now, the Cleveland Cavaliers will be a very hard team to beat. I and the coordinators have come up with a coaching plan we feel is sound. We want to discuss any possible tweaks or errors you all may have with it.
Hiree: Oh, are we going to stay home on the shooters and rely on LeBron's worst shooting zones?
Stevens: Nah.
Hiree: Oh, are we going to mix up defenders and coverages taking advantage of the team's athleticism?
Stevens: Not that either.
Hiree: (Wow, I can't believe it... I'm clearly no match for one of the greatest minds in history. I can't wait to hear the secret to ending LeBron James... I can't... wait for this moment... this is better than my wedding day...)
Stevens: So, Kyrie gave us a few things that emotionally triggers him...
Hiree: (The ****)
Stevens: Dude has baldness insecurities.
Hiree: ?????
Stevens: We also know LeBron's allergies; allergies he doesn't even know himself, so our staff will make sure it's on every towel, on the basketball, in his shoe powder...
Hiree: Wait... these are your tactics?! I waited all my life to coach in the NBA and this is how one of the greatest minds succeeds?
Stevens: Ah... I see the new hiree isn't adjusting well...
Hiree: (I can't believe it... coaching is a fraud...)
Video scout: I know Kevin Love has certain mental disorders and insecurities that can be triggered by certain words.
Stevens: Oh, Morris will love this ****.
Assistant coach: Oh, remember how LeBron complained about the air conditioning in that one finals game in San Antonio?
Hiree: Does anyone in here actually have a coaching strategy to talk about?
Video Scout: Coach! I have Lance Stephenson on Skype video.
Hiree: ....
*Stephenson appears on a large screen, wearing a Lex Luthor outfit*
Stephenson: The Legion of Doom is now in session. It is the purpose of the Legion to align our infamous forces against the powers of good and defeat them leaving us the rulers of the world.
Hiree: Okay, now y'all wildin' up in here. I'll just settle for waterboy or something.
_______________
So once again, I underestimated Boston and Brad Steven's genius. Will it be enough to finally stop LeBron this time? I believe this is his third shot against LeBron thus far, and both times I've counted out versus Boston was due to talent. This match-up, believe it or not, isn't LeBron versus Boston; it's LeBron versus Stevens. Also, I think it's very underrated to have Kyrie's mind and insights combined with Stevens' tactical mind...
I am excited to see what tricks Stevens may have this time around because past Boston teams simply did not have this type of versatility, athleticism, and switch-heavy defense. His defensive scheming this year has been phenomenal. For example, putting Ojeleye on Giannis in Game 5 of round 1, or giving Horford access to essentially be the defensive orchestrator of both Simmons and Embiid. Stevens' smarts alone is guaranteed to take one game out of this series.
The central question is this: Can Boston not only emulate but improve upon what Indiana did in round 1?
Scheme-wise, they most certainly can. They have been top three in most relevant defensive categories throughout the regular season. Stevens has already formulated ideas around two other star players, yet none of those players truly come close to LeBron's gravity and impact.
Personnel-wise, they might be a bit lacking. Horford is not the physically imposing player Young was, but he makes it up with his offense. Also, Boston's frontcourt may be less experienced, less quick, but their perimeter players are very athletic. One concern for Cleveland is if Korver will be able to stay on the floor consistently. He simply has nowhere to hide, and you can expect Stevens to attack him whenever he possibly can. Korver is essentially in Cleveland's top lineups. Calderon is in the second one. One thing that annoyed me about Indiana is that they rarely made an effort to take advantage of Korver and Calderon.
If I am Stevens, I am focusing all my energy on taking Love out of the series but that is easier said than done. NBA stats seem to indicate that it's not exactly a tall task for Horford based on his 32 possessions guarding him. If Horford (and Baynes possibly) swing the frontcourt advantage alongside to Boston, it gives them that much of a better chance of withstanding LeBron's greatness.
Other than these notes, I can't find much else to help with deciding this series since this roster only had one regular season match-up after the big shakedown. It's a matter of how you feel about the frontcourt match-ups, will Korver's defense matter, and if LeBron can withstand it all. Cleveland certainly has the intangibles: LeBron James, the more experienced team, and the more talented team. The metrics give Boston less of a chance than Toronto actually but that's mainly because Boston's strength is less statistical and more variable. When there's unpredictability, I go the safer route.
Cleveland wins if: Kevin Love has a great series, Korver can stay in the line-ups, Cleveland's frontcourt manage to stay even.
Boston wins if: Korver can't manage to not be a net negative, Love struggles, Horford is exercising his LeBron demons after almost 10 years, Stevens tactics become the new coach's porn.
Cleveland in six.
(2) Boston Celtics versus (4) Cleveland Cavaliers
*A new coaching staff hiree is about to sit down in his first coach staff meeting with the Boston Celtics*
Hiree: (Oh boy, I can't wait to learn the secrets of the great mind Brad Stevens. I'm finally going to learn what it takes to really stop the generational player LeBron James...)
Celtics Assistant Coach: You may all sit.
*Stevens enters and applause is given*
Stevens: Thank you.
Hiree:
Stevens: Now, the Cleveland Cavaliers will be a very hard team to beat. I and the coordinators have come up with a coaching plan we feel is sound. We want to discuss any possible tweaks or errors you all may have with it.
Hiree: Oh, are we going to stay home on the shooters and rely on LeBron's worst shooting zones?
Stevens: Nah.
Hiree: Oh, are we going to mix up defenders and coverages taking advantage of the team's athleticism?
Stevens: Not that either.
Hiree: (Wow, I can't believe it... I'm clearly no match for one of the greatest minds in history. I can't wait to hear the secret to ending LeBron James... I can't... wait for this moment... this is better than my wedding day...)
Stevens: So, Kyrie gave us a few things that emotionally triggers him...
Hiree: (The ****)
Stevens: Dude has baldness insecurities.
Hiree: ?????
Stevens: We also know LeBron's allergies; allergies he doesn't even know himself, so our staff will make sure it's on every towel, on the basketball, in his shoe powder...
Hiree: Wait... these are your tactics?! I waited all my life to coach in the NBA and this is how one of the greatest minds succeeds?
Stevens: Ah... I see the new hiree isn't adjusting well...
Hiree: (I can't believe it... coaching is a fraud...)
Video scout: I know Kevin Love has certain mental disorders and insecurities that can be triggered by certain words.
Stevens: Oh, Morris will love this ****.
Assistant coach: Oh, remember how LeBron complained about the air conditioning in that one finals game in San Antonio?
Hiree: Does anyone in here actually have a coaching strategy to talk about?
Video Scout: Coach! I have Lance Stephenson on Skype video.
Hiree: ....
*Stephenson appears on a large screen, wearing a Lex Luthor outfit*
Stephenson: The Legion of Doom is now in session. It is the purpose of the Legion to align our infamous forces against the powers of good and defeat them leaving us the rulers of the world.
Hiree: Okay, now y'all wildin' up in here. I'll just settle for waterboy or something.
_______________
So once again, I underestimated Boston and Brad Steven's genius. Will it be enough to finally stop LeBron this time? I believe this is his third shot against LeBron thus far, and both times I've counted out versus Boston was due to talent. This match-up, believe it or not, isn't LeBron versus Boston; it's LeBron versus Stevens. Also, I think it's very underrated to have Kyrie's mind and insights combined with Stevens' tactical mind...
I am excited to see what tricks Stevens may have this time around because past Boston teams simply did not have this type of versatility, athleticism, and switch-heavy defense. His defensive scheming this year has been phenomenal. For example, putting Ojeleye on Giannis in Game 5 of round 1, or giving Horford access to essentially be the defensive orchestrator of both Simmons and Embiid. Stevens' smarts alone is guaranteed to take one game out of this series.
The central question is this: Can Boston not only emulate but improve upon what Indiana did in round 1?
Scheme-wise, they most certainly can. They have been top three in most relevant defensive categories throughout the regular season. Stevens has already formulated ideas around two other star players, yet none of those players truly come close to LeBron's gravity and impact.
Personnel-wise, they might be a bit lacking. Horford is not the physically imposing player Young was, but he makes it up with his offense. Also, Boston's frontcourt may be less experienced, less quick, but their perimeter players are very athletic. One concern for Cleveland is if Korver will be able to stay on the floor consistently. He simply has nowhere to hide, and you can expect Stevens to attack him whenever he possibly can. Korver is essentially in Cleveland's top lineups. Calderon is in the second one. One thing that annoyed me about Indiana is that they rarely made an effort to take advantage of Korver and Calderon.
If I am Stevens, I am focusing all my energy on taking Love out of the series but that is easier said than done. NBA stats seem to indicate that it's not exactly a tall task for Horford based on his 32 possessions guarding him. If Horford (and Baynes possibly) swing the frontcourt advantage alongside to Boston, it gives them that much of a better chance of withstanding LeBron's greatness.
Other than these notes, I can't find much else to help with deciding this series since this roster only had one regular season match-up after the big shakedown. It's a matter of how you feel about the frontcourt match-ups, will Korver's defense matter, and if LeBron can withstand it all. Cleveland certainly has the intangibles: LeBron James, the more experienced team, and the more talented team. The metrics give Boston less of a chance than Toronto actually but that's mainly because Boston's strength is less statistical and more variable. When there's unpredictability, I go the safer route.
Cleveland wins if: Kevin Love has a great series, Korver can stay in the line-ups, Cleveland's frontcourt manage to stay even.
Boston wins if: Korver can't manage to not be a net negative, Love struggles, Horford is exercising his LeBron demons after almost 10 years, Stevens tactics become the new coach's porn.
Cleveland in six.
GhostAnime
Searching for her...
Western Conference Finals
(1) Houston Rockets versus (2) Golden State Warriors
So, this is the series everyone truly wants to watch because this is the unofficial finals.
These two teams are a whole tier above the rest and have been all season, and I've been thinking about this match-up for months. Regular season information is totally useless because Golden State played Pachulia in every single game, and each team missed a star the final two.
One of the central questions for me coming in this is if Houston has a line-up that can beat the Hampton Five (or, a line-up featuring a Durant/Green frontcourt)? Because if you can't beat the Hampton Five, you can't beat Golden State.
There's certainly a rush for D'Antoni here to find a great frontcourt combination. I theorize that if Capela can have big minutes and contributions, it would give Houston so many advantages in controlling the pace through rebounding, defense, and helping them play in a way they've essentially played all year. Yes, Tucker or Moute could play center; but I feel Houston is more lethal with Capela on the court because they then become a more all-around team and have a better chance of controlling the pace. History shows that Golden State's Hampton line-up is usually susceptible to offensive boards. Golden State also has an extreme lack of decent centers for this match-up. McGee would be trouble and Pachulia/West are old as balls. If Looney and Bell can't be effective, he may be forced to put the Hampton Five in overdrive.
Another way Houston has a better chance of controlling the pace is their amazing assist/turnover ratio all thanks to Paul. If Golden State has an inherent weakness, it's their massive amount of turnovers due to the sheer amount of passes they throw. The difference in turnovers could likely dictate the pace in the series if Harden/Paul don't seem phased; on the flipside, Houston's fastbreak defense is atrocious. If they play shitty possessions or turn the ball over anywhere close to Golden State's numbers, they lose one of the only innate advantages they have over this team.
Individual match-ups are likely to matter less in this series than we're all accustomed to since we're going to see a lot of switching. Curry and Harden's defense will be tested on a nightly basis and whoever can remain the most effective on that end gives their team the advantage. Last time Curry was tested like this with a similar injury, it was 2016 and they lost 3-1. I'm tempted to give Harden an edge over Curry in defense simply because I know 100% healthy, he's improved in that end through the eye test, and he has more help in ball-handling than in years past.
As for Kevin Durant...
Judging through the regular season possessions, Ariza, Tucker, and Moute will get the most minutes and they seemed to have done a fairly okay job although I want to say it'd be more indicative to see what Paul, Harden, and Capela to do once switched onto him. Yes, I said 6'0" Chris Paul and you'd be surprised how well he defends bigger defenders.
Klay Thompson is probably the absolute best defender Harden has ever seen. He hasn't fouled him in years, but as I said above, it's hard to predict how well say, Curry, Iguodala, or Durant will defend him in space. If anyone can though, it's the Hampton Five with Green and Durant's length and defense.
One small thing I'd like to mention as far as team stats is that Golden State's three-point shooting is something worth thinking about. Iguodala and Green are shooting fine now but against the best offensive team in by historical standards, is it enough? Heck, even Durant is shooting below his averages. Houston's been pretty disappointing too but they have an excuse in Gobert; Gordon has been bad though. Still, I'd trust most of Houston's shooters wide-open over Iguodala and Green in a series.
The series to me is essentially a toss-up if we ignore Golden State's history. They've lost a total of three playoff games up to this point. That is impressive, and they rarely use that Hampton Five line-up during the regular season (it's got some burn more this season which is interesting, have they been pushed to the ropes a bit maybe..?)
To me, it all comes down to how much you trust Capela to work in his match-ups because Golden State has no prayer in hell on keeping guys like Looney/Bell in for extended stretches. Can the Hampton Five play forever? Maybe, but is that something Green/Durant can do for extended stretches if they have to? Can Curry and Green stay out of foul trouble? Can Harden/Paul remain mostly efficient and as turnover-free as they have during these playoffs?
I'm telling everybody to favor Golden State, but my heart wants Houston so bad so I'll just make a fun pick.
Houston Rockets in seven.
Houston wins if: Capela is the most efficient frontcourt player in the series, Curry can't move laterally, Hampton Five can't play 30+ minutes effectively, Harden/Paul's assist/turnover rate was just enough, Golden State can't shoot in the ocean from three outside of Klay, Curry, Durant
Golden State wins if: Harden can't guard anybody again, Houston can't come up with a decent frontcourt combination in time, Harden/Paul can't score in isolation through the length of the Durant/Green, Green is too good on both ends of the floor. Green/Iguodala make their shots.
(1) Houston Rockets versus (2) Golden State Warriors
So, this is the series everyone truly wants to watch because this is the unofficial finals.
These two teams are a whole tier above the rest and have been all season, and I've been thinking about this match-up for months. Regular season information is totally useless because Golden State played Pachulia in every single game, and each team missed a star the final two.
One of the central questions for me coming in this is if Houston has a line-up that can beat the Hampton Five (or, a line-up featuring a Durant/Green frontcourt)? Because if you can't beat the Hampton Five, you can't beat Golden State.
There's certainly a rush for D'Antoni here to find a great frontcourt combination. I theorize that if Capela can have big minutes and contributions, it would give Houston so many advantages in controlling the pace through rebounding, defense, and helping them play in a way they've essentially played all year. Yes, Tucker or Moute could play center; but I feel Houston is more lethal with Capela on the court because they then become a more all-around team and have a better chance of controlling the pace. History shows that Golden State's Hampton line-up is usually susceptible to offensive boards. Golden State also has an extreme lack of decent centers for this match-up. McGee would be trouble and Pachulia/West are old as balls. If Looney and Bell can't be effective, he may be forced to put the Hampton Five in overdrive.
Another way Houston has a better chance of controlling the pace is their amazing assist/turnover ratio all thanks to Paul. If Golden State has an inherent weakness, it's their massive amount of turnovers due to the sheer amount of passes they throw. The difference in turnovers could likely dictate the pace in the series if Harden/Paul don't seem phased; on the flipside, Houston's fastbreak defense is atrocious. If they play shitty possessions or turn the ball over anywhere close to Golden State's numbers, they lose one of the only innate advantages they have over this team.
Individual match-ups are likely to matter less in this series than we're all accustomed to since we're going to see a lot of switching. Curry and Harden's defense will be tested on a nightly basis and whoever can remain the most effective on that end gives their team the advantage. Last time Curry was tested like this with a similar injury, it was 2016 and they lost 3-1. I'm tempted to give Harden an edge over Curry in defense simply because I know 100% healthy, he's improved in that end through the eye test, and he has more help in ball-handling than in years past.
As for Kevin Durant...
Judging through the regular season possessions, Ariza, Tucker, and Moute will get the most minutes and they seemed to have done a fairly okay job although I want to say it'd be more indicative to see what Paul, Harden, and Capela to do once switched onto him. Yes, I said 6'0" Chris Paul and you'd be surprised how well he defends bigger defenders.
Klay Thompson is probably the absolute best defender Harden has ever seen. He hasn't fouled him in years, but as I said above, it's hard to predict how well say, Curry, Iguodala, or Durant will defend him in space. If anyone can though, it's the Hampton Five with Green and Durant's length and defense.
One small thing I'd like to mention as far as team stats is that Golden State's three-point shooting is something worth thinking about. Iguodala and Green are shooting fine now but against the best offensive team in by historical standards, is it enough? Heck, even Durant is shooting below his averages. Houston's been pretty disappointing too but they have an excuse in Gobert; Gordon has been bad though. Still, I'd trust most of Houston's shooters wide-open over Iguodala and Green in a series.
The series to me is essentially a toss-up if we ignore Golden State's history. They've lost a total of three playoff games up to this point. That is impressive, and they rarely use that Hampton Five line-up during the regular season (it's got some burn more this season which is interesting, have they been pushed to the ropes a bit maybe..?)
To me, it all comes down to how much you trust Capela to work in his match-ups because Golden State has no prayer in hell on keeping guys like Looney/Bell in for extended stretches. Can the Hampton Five play forever? Maybe, but is that something Green/Durant can do for extended stretches if they have to? Can Curry and Green stay out of foul trouble? Can Harden/Paul remain mostly efficient and as turnover-free as they have during these playoffs?
I'm telling everybody to favor Golden State, but my heart wants Houston so bad so I'll just make a fun pick.
Houston Rockets in seven.
Houston wins if: Capela is the most efficient frontcourt player in the series, Curry can't move laterally, Hampton Five can't play 30+ minutes effectively, Harden/Paul's assist/turnover rate was just enough, Golden State can't shoot in the ocean from three outside of Klay, Curry, Durant
Golden State wins if: Harden can't guard anybody again, Houston can't come up with a decent frontcourt combination in time, Harden/Paul can't score in isolation through the length of the Durant/Green, Green is too good on both ends of the floor. Green/Iguodala make their shots.
PokemonBattleFanatic-
Hardcore Paul Fan
Michael Jordan vs LeBron James
Fade Away Jump Shot
Michael Jordan
Slashing
Michael Jordan
Mid Range Jump Shot
Michael Jordan
Three Point Jump Shot
Tie
Catch and Shoot
Michael Jordan
Passing
Tie
Rebounding
Michael Jordan
Blocking
Michael Jordan
On Ball Defense
Michael Jordan
Off Ball Defense
Michael Jordan
Help Defense
Michael Jordan
Finisher At The Rim
Michael Jordan
Footwork
Michael Jordan
Speed
Michael Jordan
Quickness
Michael Jordan
Strength
Tie
Stamina
Michael Jordan
Free Throw Shooting
Michael Jordan
Dunking
Michael Jordan
MVP
Fade Away Jump Shot
Michael Jordan
Slashing
Michael Jordan
Mid Range Jump Shot
Michael Jordan
Three Point Jump Shot
Tie
Catch and Shoot
Michael Jordan
Passing
Tie
Rebounding
Michael Jordan
Blocking
Michael Jordan
On Ball Defense
Michael Jordan
Off Ball Defense
Michael Jordan
Help Defense
Michael Jordan
Finisher At The Rim
Michael Jordan
Footwork
Michael Jordan
Speed
Michael Jordan
Quickness
Michael Jordan
Strength
Tie
Stamina
Michael Jordan
Free Throw Shooting
Michael Jordan
Dunking
Michael Jordan
MVP
- Michael Jordan 5
- LeBron James 4
- Michael Jordan 6
- LeBron James 3
- Michael Jordan 10
- LeBron James 1
- LeBron James 12
- Michael Jordan 10
- Michael Jordan 9
- LeBron James 5
Defensive Player Of The Year- Michael Jordan 1
- LeBron James 0
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KrayzieBuddha
英雄豪傑
It's official ladies and gentlemen, the Los Angeles Lakers has signed LeBron James to a 4-year deal worth 154 million.
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CyberBlaziken
A Greater Evil
Just like Lebron, I'm also taking my talents to the West.
PokemonBattleFanatic-
Hardcore Paul Fan
Orlando always seems to land talented centers in the draft,let's see what coach Steve Clifford does with this team.
KrayzieBuddha
英雄豪傑
It’s just freakin sad that the Spurs fans already crapping on Kahwi.
PokemonBattleFanatic-
Hardcore Paul Fan
So far into the 2018-2019 NBA season
1.Anthony Davis (Two-Way Player)
2.Kawhi Leonard (Two-Way Player)
3.Kevin Durant (Two-Way Player)
4.Jimmy Butler (Two-Way Player)
5.LeBron James (One-Way Player)
My biggest problem so far in this season is the lack of defense and physicality,it's really evident now with literally every team scoring up to 100-120+ points at the end of every game.Hand Checking needs to be brought back into the game.
1.Anthony Davis (Two-Way Player)
2.Kawhi Leonard (Two-Way Player)
3.Kevin Durant (Two-Way Player)
4.Jimmy Butler (Two-Way Player)
5.LeBron James (One-Way Player)
My biggest problem so far in this season is the lack of defense and physicality,it's really evident now with literally every team scoring up to 100-120+ points at the end of every game.Hand Checking needs to be brought back into the game.
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PokemonBattleFanatic-
Hardcore Paul Fan
[MEDIA]