They probably refrained from evolving Chespin because Quilladin wasn't too popular (sorry to Quilladin fans), going as far as to only appearing in one episode.
Besides Snivy, I think that Rowlet was sort of an odd case as well. Since Decidueye was already popular within the community with some even wanting it as the gen 7 rep fighter in Smash before Incineroar was announced.
I believe that the writers originally had deeper plans for Ash's Rowlet, but the backpack gag along with its unique personality made it adored among the anime fanbase. Overall, I'm glad that it stayed a Rowlet.
We've yet to see what's going to happen with Grookey. I personally want it to stay as it is so Goh can have one stage of each gen 8 starter line.
I mean, Chespin was literally the most popular of its line, since neither Quilladin and Chesnaught are popular.
Rowlet was more popular than Decidueye in Japan as well (Only late in SUMO run Decidueye got traction, possibily due to its inclusion in Pokken, since Primarina was the OG popular fully evolved starter in Japan, oh my, Gamefreak has done good things to the water starters the last three gens, since all of them were/are popular in Japan initially, since while Primarina has been overtaken by Incineroar and Decidueye, its still in the top 10, which is really rare since that rarely happens that all three fully evolved forms are in the top 10 based on the Pokemon of the Year Poll (Only Fully Evolved starter trio to even be in the top 10 of their region), especially if we look at the fully evolved mons top 10.
Kanto: Charizard
Johto: Typhlosion
Hoenn: Sceptile and Blaziken (Swampert is 11th, close to the top 10).
Sinnoh: Infernape and Empoleon
Unova: Serperior
Kalos: Greninja
Alola: Decidueye, Incineroar and Primarina
Galar: Cinderace and Inteleon (But we know Japanese results are way different with them)
Interesting observation that ever since gen 5, the Fire starters have lost some traction and that the Water type is slowly gonna be overtaking them.
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