EKZ1505
Well-Known Member
Mega Mence is surely faster than M-Ray but in a 1v1 situation where both Pokémon are healthy, Lv 100 (though usually in a VGC situation Pokémon are set to Lv 50) and do their max damage (no critical hits) and without stat boosts, Mega Mence eventually loses out if it doesn't have Return and just spams Double-Edge.
So:
252 Atk Aerilate Mega Salamence Double-Edge vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Rayquaza: 276-325 (78.6 - 92.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Because of recoil damage, Mega Mence could lose up to 108 HP. Mence shall have 223 HP remaining (no EVs, 31 IVs in HP).
And there's Rayquaza's Dragon Ascent:
252 Atk Life Orb Mega Rayquaza Dragon Ascent vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Salamence: 259-305 (78.2 - 92.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
It does up to 305 HP damage, which is enough to KO Mega Salamence (even if both Pokémon do their min damage).
But if Mega Salamence used Return instead:
252 Atk Aerilate Mega Salamence Return vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Rayquaza: 235-277 (66.9 - 78.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Life Orb Mega Rayquaza Dragon Ascent vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Salamence: 259-305 (78.2 - 92.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
And:
252 Atk Aerilate Mega Salamence Return vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Rayquaza: 235-277 (66.9 - 78.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
This time Mega Salamence wins out.
Mega Mence doesn't win out all the time but it just depends on what moves you put on it and the current battle situation.
If it used Outrage, it would surely be a OHKO because Strong Winds doesn't affect Mega Rayquaza's weakness to Dragon.
VGC is always max lvl 50, so your calcs may be slightly off (Rayquaza may be potentially Intimidated as well), but the standard Salamence will still usually beat Rayquaza. In VGC (and especially in previous battle competitions where M-Rayquaza was allowed), Salamence is often best run as a mixed set. Most Salamences here are going to carry Draco Meteor for Rayquaza (among other things), so as long as Draco hits, it wins. No one is going to use Outrage, as it attacks a random target in double battles.
I know Altaria is getting a mention here because of Cloud Nine, but it's just plain bad. Even M-Altaria was terrible in VGC 2015. It deserves it fair chance to be tested, but since there are even more powerful Pokemon (and stronger weather setters), I just don't see how it stands a chance.
The only "weather lock" Pokemon I see working consistently is Air Lock Rayquaza as a dual-mega (or a single mega who doesn't mega evolve, or just waits to). It has a nice role it that it doesn't need a mega stone to mega evolve, so it can still do other things if it waits a turn or two to mega evolve.
All the other Cloud Nine Pokemon are very gimmicky because they are so weak other than their ability. The problem is that everyone will know what they do. The only nice thing about them is that you won't have to come up with ways (by switching or with support moves) to "win the weather war," which is going to be huge in this format.
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