Hello all! Since I haven't seen any concrete numbers or other attempts at this, I figured I'd try and figure out the egg drop statistics from pokestops, with community contribution! My aim: to calculate a fairly accurate estimate of A) the percent chance of getting an egg drop from a pokestop and B) the percent chance of getting a certain egg distance tier. In simpler terms, an X% chance to get an egg at a pokestop, and an A% B% C% chance that the egg is 2 km, 5 km, or 10 km, respectively.
How will I go about this, you ask? Simple! Every time I visit a pokestop, I will record whether or not I get an egg, and if I get an egg, what kind of distance tier it is. However, in order to get reasonably accurate numbers, I cannot do this alone! That's where you guys come in!
I've created a spreadsheet to record this data, however because only I can edit it, I have a few rules and guidelines for contributing:
I. How to participate
Participation is really simple! Starting after you've read this post, each time you visit a pokestop, record whether or not you got an egg, and if so, what distance tier egg it was. Then, report it to me in a reply to this thread!
However, please do not cherry-pick! Do not only record instances where you got an egg or vice-versa. In order to try to avoid this, when reporting data, please make sure you've reported at least three consecutive instances. I cannot stress the "consecutive" enough! If you forget to record a pokestop, consider the next one a restart of your list. It's okay to report multiple batches, though! (As long as they meet the "at least three data sets" requirement)
Also, in your first report, I would appreciate it if you'd also list the number of certain distance tier eggs you've received (ie; four 5 km, two 2 km, one 10 km), not including the eggs you got when you were recording pokestop data. This will be very helpful in pinpointing the frequency of each type of egg drop and is a great way for people to quickly contribute, even if they don't want to record.
Edit: I'd like to add that you don't need to specify if a pokestop visited is a repeat or not. Pokestops refresh after about every five minutes, and it's perfectly okay for multiple (or all) of your reported data to be from the same pokestop!
Finally, if you're unsure of a certain data point, do not guess!!!!! Simply report that specific field as "I don't remember" or "I don't know", etc. No data is better than faulty data!
There's no formal report format I'd like you to use, but if you need an example you can use the one below:
Stop #: No egg / Egg, [distance] km
ie:
Stop 1: No egg
Stop 2: Egg, 5 km
Stop 3: No egg
Stop 1: Egg, 10 km
Stop 2: Egg, I don't remember
Stop 3: No egg
Stop 4: No egg, max eggs
And for the egg data:
Eggs: [#] [distance] km
ie:
Eggs: [10] 5 km, [3] 2 km, [2] 10 km
II. Navigating the spreadsheet
There are two pages on the spreadsheet, Pokestop recording and Egg statistics. I'll talk about the Pokestop recording page first.
A. Pokestop recording
There are three columns on the Pokestop recording page, Egg drop?, Distance, and Max eggs.
Egg drop? column reports whether or not the pokestop you visited gave you an egg. Y if you got an egg, N if you didn't.
If you received an egg, the Distance column reports what distance is required for you to travel in order to hatch the egg. In order to view this, go to the menu (pokeball on the bottom-center of the screen), click on "Pokemon", and go to the "EGGS" tab. The distance requirement will be listed as either 2.0 km, 5.0 km, or 10.0 km. On the spreadsheet, I use 2, 5, or 10 to indicate this distance requirement.
Finally, the Max eggs? column indicates if you had max (9/9) eggs when you visited the pokestop. If not, it's left blank.
B. Egg statistics
This page exists to collect data specifically on the frequency of certain distance tier drops. If you don't want to take part in recording down each time you visit a pokestop, you can still drop your egg data in here! Even if you only do it once, it will be a great contribution!
With that out of the way, here is a link to the spreadsheet
Once I have a sizable amount of data points, I will use a statistics software to periodically calculate the rough statistics for egg drops and post them here. Please stay tuned!
Additionally, if you have any questions, please feel free to ask! I know I'm not the best writer, so if you need clarification or just have a general question I'm happy to answer! My only request is that you stay on the topic of this thread, please!!! There's already a discussion thread if you'd like to chat about other aspects of Pokemon Go.
Thank you so much for reading and a huge thanks in advance for anyone who participates!!!
How will I go about this, you ask? Simple! Every time I visit a pokestop, I will record whether or not I get an egg, and if I get an egg, what kind of distance tier it is. However, in order to get reasonably accurate numbers, I cannot do this alone! That's where you guys come in!
I've created a spreadsheet to record this data, however because only I can edit it, I have a few rules and guidelines for contributing:
I. How to participate
Participation is really simple! Starting after you've read this post, each time you visit a pokestop, record whether or not you got an egg, and if so, what distance tier egg it was. Then, report it to me in a reply to this thread!
However, please do not cherry-pick! Do not only record instances where you got an egg or vice-versa. In order to try to avoid this, when reporting data, please make sure you've reported at least three consecutive instances. I cannot stress the "consecutive" enough! If you forget to record a pokestop, consider the next one a restart of your list. It's okay to report multiple batches, though! (As long as they meet the "at least three data sets" requirement)
Also, in your first report, I would appreciate it if you'd also list the number of certain distance tier eggs you've received (ie; four 5 km, two 2 km, one 10 km), not including the eggs you got when you were recording pokestop data. This will be very helpful in pinpointing the frequency of each type of egg drop and is a great way for people to quickly contribute, even if they don't want to record.
Edit: I'd like to add that you don't need to specify if a pokestop visited is a repeat or not. Pokestops refresh after about every five minutes, and it's perfectly okay for multiple (or all) of your reported data to be from the same pokestop!
Finally, if you're unsure of a certain data point, do not guess!!!!! Simply report that specific field as "I don't remember" or "I don't know", etc. No data is better than faulty data!
There's no formal report format I'd like you to use, but if you need an example you can use the one below:
Stop #: No egg / Egg, [distance] km
ie:
Stop 1: No egg
Stop 2: Egg, 5 km
Stop 3: No egg
Stop 1: Egg, 10 km
Stop 2: Egg, I don't remember
Stop 3: No egg
Stop 4: No egg, max eggs
And for the egg data:
Eggs: [#] [distance] km
ie:
Eggs: [10] 5 km, [3] 2 km, [2] 10 km
II. Navigating the spreadsheet
There are two pages on the spreadsheet, Pokestop recording and Egg statistics. I'll talk about the Pokestop recording page first.
A. Pokestop recording
There are three columns on the Pokestop recording page, Egg drop?, Distance, and Max eggs.
Egg drop? column reports whether or not the pokestop you visited gave you an egg. Y if you got an egg, N if you didn't.
If you received an egg, the Distance column reports what distance is required for you to travel in order to hatch the egg. In order to view this, go to the menu (pokeball on the bottom-center of the screen), click on "Pokemon", and go to the "EGGS" tab. The distance requirement will be listed as either 2.0 km, 5.0 km, or 10.0 km. On the spreadsheet, I use 2, 5, or 10 to indicate this distance requirement.
Finally, the Max eggs? column indicates if you had max (9/9) eggs when you visited the pokestop. If not, it's left blank.
B. Egg statistics
This page exists to collect data specifically on the frequency of certain distance tier drops. If you don't want to take part in recording down each time you visit a pokestop, you can still drop your egg data in here! Even if you only do it once, it will be a great contribution!
With that out of the way, here is a link to the spreadsheet
Once I have a sizable amount of data points, I will use a statistics software to periodically calculate the rough statistics for egg drops and post them here. Please stay tuned!
Additionally, if you have any questions, please feel free to ask! I know I'm not the best writer, so if you need clarification or just have a general question I'm happy to answer! My only request is that you stay on the topic of this thread, please!!! There's already a discussion thread if you'd like to chat about other aspects of Pokemon Go.
Thank you so much for reading and a huge thanks in advance for anyone who participates!!!
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