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The Counter Index

Discussion in 'Older Gens' started by 3.14kachu, Nov 11, 2011.

  1. 3.14kachu

    3.14kachu 2.72pic √(-1)nventor

    I had an idea for a project, probably one of the biggest that has ever been attempted for competitive pokemon. So huge is this undertaking that I want the feedback of a few seasoned battlers before I start. If this works, competitive pokemon will never be the same.

    The idea basically stemmed from the desire to condense the competitive value of a pokemon into a single number. Previously, this has never been done well, as the approach was always to create a formula with stats, movepool, and other aspects of a pokemon. I start basically with how well the pokemon does in battles, the very thing that needs to be analyzed.

    First, I need to define a counter. This is a pokemon that you switch in which creates a situation in which the foe would be better off switching out. Weavile is a good Salamence counter, as an Ice Shard is enough to bring it down, so the opponent should switch out or lose Salamence. However, a counter need not be a sweeper. Skarmory can switch in and counter Haxorus. Even though Skarmory won't KO, it will still be able to plant layers of Spikes, and Whirlwind away Haxorus if it tries to set up. Thus, it is advantageous for Haxorus to switch.

    I listed every usable set (thanks, Smogon) of every pokemon with a usage of 0.5% or higher (thanks again, Smogon). This is about 500 sets, from Dragonite down to Yanmega. I put all of these onto a spreadsheet twice, once for the X-axis, and once for the Y-axis.

    Here is my plan. I'll fill in each cell in the table this forms with a number. If a pokemon in the Y-axis counters one in the X-axis, I will fill in the cell of their intersection with the product of their usage percentages. If that pokemon does not counter, the space is left blank.

    At the right edge of the spreadsheet, I put a cell per row that contains the sum of the numbers in that row, divided by the percent usage of that row's pokemon (the one on the Y-axis). This gives me the sum of the percentages of the pokemon that this pokemon counters. I think this is a sensible way to create a value for the pokemon's ability to counter foes, since this is relative to the odds of a certain foe appearing. For instance, Heatran counters both Ferrothorn and Bisharp, but countering Ferrothorn is worth more to its score, because Ferrothorn comes up as a foe more often.

    At the bottom of the spreadsheet, I put a cell per column that contains the sum of the numbers in that column, divided by the percent usage of that column's pokemon (on the X-axis). This result is the sum of the percentages of the pokemon that counter this pokemon. While the number to the right reflects competitive strength, the number at the bottom represents weakness.

    To provide a total value for a pokemon, I simply divide the % sum that it counters by the % sum that counters it. The values that form are, literally, the ratio of a pokemon's ability to counter to its capacity to be countered.

    The impact of these numbers, once generated, would be astronomical. We would know, numerically, which pokemon is the best at sweeping, at stalling, and at setting up a variety of effects including Wish, hazards, and screens.
    But before I go through the trouble of filling up a spreadsheet with roughly 250000 pieces of data, I need help. I created this thread to explain my idea and recieve feedback, to discuss whether this method of rating pokemon is accurate or useful, and, if the idea catches on, to post updates on my progress, ask about which sets counter which, and possibly enlist the help of others. If I can finish this, I think it will greatly help competitive battle.
     
  2. Blue Harvest

    Blue Harvest Banned

    I thought of doing something like this before, but I was far too lazy.

    While the idea is cool there are two things you should consider.

    0.5% usage is WAAAAY too low to take into account. You're talking about things like Honchkrow, Lapras or Sceptile, Pokemon you will see maybe one time in hundreds of battles. If I told you your team was Lapras would you say "oh no, I should fix that" or would you laugh and say "no one uses Lapras, who cares?" 2% is a much better cutoff. 1% could work but its scraping the bottom of the "commonly used" barrel at that point. If you include Pokemon no one will ever see you could end up with bad statistics.. Gastrodon could lose points for being countered by Sceptile where in reality this never happens.

    Also what about Pokemon like Forretress who technically counter very little but have enormous utility? Even though Metagross usually wins 1 vs 1 I consider Ferrothorn a great switch in to Metagross because it can Spike out the *** against it. What about checks, like Salamence switching in on Lucario? Stuff that can come in on SOME moves like Scarf Landorus against DD Gyarados? You could take into account the percentage of moves and sets you can switch into, but you can not take into account prediction.
     
  3. Zachmac

    Zachmac Crystalline Guardian

    This is true, but the 2% usage are also pretty rare.

    Maybe use should use a different graph for each tier. OU will only take in BL and the top percentage of UU, maybe.
     
  4. complete legitimacy

    complete legitimacy pack that fudge

    The problem with that is that UU usage has nothing to do with OU viablity. Donphan is #1 in UU, but pretty bad in OU. Slowbro, on the other hand, is great in OU but doesn't make the top 10 in UU.
     
  5. Barbeller

    Barbeller Scatter Brained

    I don't know about the cut off but maybe a check gets 1 point and a counter 2?
     
  6. Cyano

    Cyano TARDIS Pilot

    Questions
    1. A usage of over 0.5% in what tier?
    2. I am wondering if you are going to have trouble choosing which pokemon deserve a switch out ot not because some pokemon are pretty even and whether you should switch out against a certain pokemon is sometimes arguable.

    This is brilliant idea and deserves to be taken seriously and incase you won't take me seriously I know that the sentence under 3.14kachu's name says epic inventor.
     
  7. Ilan

    Ilan Well-Known Member

    your chart will count only in the following situations:
    31 IVs of every stats (or close to that)
    1 VS 1 with no previous boosts (baton pass) weather or "rooms" (trick room,wonder room), or stealth rock,spikes,toxic spikes.

    you can't really factor the luck based stuff like crits (on long stall wars is something will probably will happen), more/less attack imput on the random generator, damage on the switch, multiscale,serene grace,scald burn,discharge paralyze,stone edge miss, focus miss blast and other stuff...

    there are too many factors for this to work...
     
  8. 3.14kachu

    3.14kachu 2.72pic √(-1)nventor

    Here are some answers to some of the things I've heard.

    I wanted to go all-out and take into account even the pokemon you won't generally see. BH, your point about Gastrodon losing points for its Sceptile weakness doesn't really matter, because all points are judged by usage. Since Sceptile is used so infrequently, its ability to counter Gastrodon will only very slightly affect Gastrodon's score (although it will really help Sceptile's due to the commonality of Gastrodon).

    Still, I was hoping people would say that 0.5% is too low, since that's way more work for me. On the other hand, removing the bottom 1% gets rid of things like Rotom-H, which is a great counter to BoltBeamers, Venusaur, Dragons, and loads of other things. I also like it personally because it's a friggin toaster. I'm a bit hesitant to take it and the other 30 pokemon off my list. Sigilyph, Blastoise, Shaymin, and Bisharp would be among those removed from the list. 2% usage would eliminate another 26 pokemon, including Azelf, Xatu, Weavile, Togekiss, and Raiku.

    To clarify, the usage stats are from the October OU usage list on Smogon, modified slightly to account for the banning of Excadrill and Thundurus. If this works well, another list could be made for other tier usage as well.

    I have actually taken those things into account. I didn't say that the counter pokemon needed to KO the opponent, but merely that it would make it unwise for the opponent to stay in play. Thus, any pokemon that allows Forretress to set up a few layers of Spikes would be considered "countered" by it. The Salamence in your example also counters the Lucario.

    Scarf is a different story, one that I have decided not to include; I have removed all Choice sets from the table. The reason for this is that Choice pokemon, while they are amazing counters to certain threats, are also equally counterable because they are trapped on only one move. Thus, their Counter Index value would be something close to 1, a fairly low amount that does not accurately portray their usability.

    I made the following assumptions when making the table:

    1) A pokemon will be able to switch in with a relatively negligible amount of damage.
    2) An inaccurate move will always be expected to hit.
    3) Your pokemon always deal minimum damage and recieve maximum damage.
    4) When you switch in, the opponent has had one turn to set up. This means that countering Cloyster means countering +2 Cloyster, and countering Forretress means you switch in on 1 layer of Spikes.
    5) Nobody ever has a critical hit.
    6) As the 30% chance of missing on Focus Blast will not occur, neither will the 30% effect chance of Scald or Discharge.
    7) Everything has perfect IVs, a normal nature, and a beneficial item.

    I think these are reasonable assumptions, and, while chance can interfere, these are assumptions any good trainer should make when switching a new pokemon into play. If the foe is a Gengar, don't switch in a Tyranitar on the assumption that Focus Blast will miss.

    As for weather, that has already been included. On the foe axis (X-axis), the opponents are labeled such things as "Dragonite in Rain" or "Bronzong in Trick Room," and their counters are modified thusly.

    Hopefully, that cleared up a lot about the idea.
     
  9. Dr.Chaos

    Dr.Chaos stick in the mud

    Your idea seems sound in theory, but so many players use unorthodox sets that are very good. Also you have to take into account the different items people use.You also have to consider the role that entry hazards play in on the game. Many so-called non-counters are good when the opponent has taken some damage. You have to take too many factors into account when you are making this.
     
  10. Soperman

    Soperman The One and Only

    This idea is amazing, and i would love to help if it wasnt so complicated. My brain hurts already.
    However, there is way too much to take into account. And how long will it take you to do this? The metagame changes. Some pokemon will become Ubers, others may be lowered a tier or two.

    Maybe, but common sets are common because they're good.
    And to the rest, 3.14kachu mentioned what he would take into account. This is for general usage, not to calculate every freaking detail in battling.
     
  11. Ninja Dewott

    Ninja Dewott Ice Cold Fire

    Yay, Maths lessons! :D

    Anyway, I think this idea is pretty damn good, it'd provide a good starting point for a team if someone were thinking "I should build my team around something that counters most of the metagame".

    I'll gladly help all I can.
     
  12. 3.14kachu

    3.14kachu 2.72pic √(-1)nventor

    I'm glad that I'm getting so much positive feedback, but before I start, I need to know which pokemon to include. The top 98%? 99%? 99.5%?

    See post #8 (3rd paragraph) for the most important pokemon that these changes would include.
     
  13. WeatherEffectRain

    WeatherEffectRain Arm Wrestle?

    Exceptional Idea, and it should work well, but uh... you're only accounting for the Pokemon. 1v1 is an actual tier on Smogon, but not competitive play generally used (OU, Standard). Honestly, this makes alot of since, but those misses, cirts, stat alterations and everything else kills battles or wins you games.

    This does look like it would work well, and it would help players... But you gotta get the big picture - You have to know that, as stated, predictions fall into the basis for battling, and you don't even cover the whole of Pokemon. Heck, if you based an entire team on this, it might work well. But if I came at you with my team, you wouldn't know how to handle it: I run an Anti-Metagame Team, and such I run unorthodox sets. Strike one. I pay attention to my whole team, as well as yours, and I know how to make different plays. Strike two. and you also don't take into account the idiot luck syndrome: Absolute hell on those who befell it, it means you lose (Also known as just typical luck mind you). Strike three.

    This will work, and I'm sorry to be a bringer of bad news. It will or would be certainly be a good tool, and be nice to refer to... But it needs to uh... Expand.

    It's not my hurt to let you continue, and I'll probably support this, but you need to make it bigger to have it become succesful. starting with what you have I do support already, but you do need to account for the other factors, and it's the reason other charts or systems don't work out well.

    TL;DR: Make it account for the other stuff, and this is a good starting point, but it will probably end up like the others if you don't account for other factors.

    BTW, this is supposed to sound like positive feedback.
     
  14. TerraWolf

    TerraWolf Banned

    Spinning and has priority to break Balloon? Bad in OU?
     
  15. 3.14kachu

    3.14kachu 2.72pic √(-1)nventor

    I really appreciate your input. I agree that this doesn't cover anything but what could be called "traditional" movesets. Weird counter teams like the one you described generally don't apply, but in order to anticipate this possibility, the table's long and arduous process would have to include every possible moveset, including Gyarados with Leer. The other problem is that I have only the data about the % usage of pokemon, not of movesets. Still, this chart applies to most of the movesets used, so it's extremely reliable.

    When you say you "know how to make different plays," I honestly don't see how that applies. I've already taken into account that you and the opponent are great at prediction with the assumption that all pokemon switch in with negligible damage. While this is not necessarily true, it affects surprisingly little. This is not a guide to instant victory, or team synergy, or prediction. The values that I am attempting to generate simply say which pokemon are able to respond to the greatest number of threats.

    Random chance is also absent, and for good reason. People are going to use this to build teams and battle, and in those, you don't factor in chance. As far as I'm concerned, you should never depend on a critical hit, a miss, the opponent's bad prediction, or any one of those freak occurances that happens in pokemon.

    In other news, I've decided to stick with my old 0.5% cutoff mark. I want this to be as accurate as possible, while being as lazy as I dare.
     
  16. Pichu47

    Pichu47 Fear Me, If You Dare

    This is a great idea. Somebody should do this. I'm just too lazy though. I think that the cuttoff should be 1%.
     
  17. WeatherEffectRain

    WeatherEffectRain Arm Wrestle?

    Yeah, but it's not a guide. Build it, it will work, I'd probably use it, but it's nowhere going to be reliable as you think.

    Plus, IMO, you should chart the repurcussions of what those random occurances do, as when that Focus Miss doesn't hit TTar or your Dragonite get's Crit'd, most people need to make sure they can deal with it, not just hope. Although that would be really hard, it would give us a better tool. ...Speaking of tools, if you have scripting experience, Smogon would appreciate. Lol.
     
  18. Wire

    Wire Banned

    Smogon already did something like this posting average kills per battle and average turns alive
     
  19. WeatherEffectRain

    WeatherEffectRain Arm Wrestle?

    There's different versions and alterations for different Charts of this nature. XYZ is alot different than XYU, no?
     
  20. XxragdollxX

    XxragdollxX Jazz hands

    I think this is a really good idea despite the problemsthat have been mentioned.
    Also i think this website might help http://beldum.org/synergy
     

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