I don't think Thibs will be Coach of the Year honestly, but he'll be runner-up, most likely to Popovich.
Thibs has come in to Chicago and he's not only tied for third all-time in wins by a rookie head coach (prior to Bulls/Magic later today, no less), but in one season, he has completely erased the harm that Vinny del Negro did as a head coach and installed the defensive schemes you've seen the Bulls play all season. Every bit of that is him.
He's taken every guy on this team, from young players to veterans, and he's gotten them to buy into his system completely and entirely. They play hard, they play defense and he will in fact scream at them from and on the sidelines if they don't.
If you think I'm speaking in vague generalities, you're right, because that's what the basketball writers see as they start to fill in their ballots. They see a guy who came in and as a rookie head coach, turned a 41-win #8 seed into a potentially-60-win-plus #1 seed, and did so while installing a completely new and tremendously effective defensive system while integrating seven players into the team who weren't present the season before. The writers eat that sort of stuff up; if - IF - Thibs doesn't win the award over Popovich, it will be only by the slimmest of margins.
Bogans isn't going to always be consistent from the three.
He hasn't been that consistent this year from game to game, shooting 37.6% from behind the arc, and the Bulls appear to have managed. He only averages 17:41 a game anyway; Brewer and Korver see considerable minutes at the 2 and Watson as well to a lesser extent.