If you're refering to the current Iraq situation then it is not going paticularly well.
And that is a complete and utter lie.
The longer it lasts the weaker the resolve of the average voter will get and the less likely they are to suport it.
Is that why the nightly news is no longer carrying coverage on Iraq? Is that why the Democrats started stearing away from Iraq once the Surge started working? Iraq has become a non issue.
America doesn't have a good record of quickly putting an end to guerrilla warfare.
And yet so far we are doing very good in Iraq since the Surge.
Secterian Violence since the Surge
Attack Trends
I think you assume that because you think this is a weakness of Obama's then it is - I would disagree. Watching his last debate with Clinton he obviously views it as a strength of his campaign - and I would assume he has a good reason for thinking this.
Then he is going to have to explain what he thinks is going wrong in Iraq. He is going to have to tell why we should get out while we are doing so well. Remember this is the man that also said that Genocide wasn't a excuse to stay in Iraq.
While these polls are by no means inrefutable proof, they do give somewhat of an indication.
And mind you those opinions are mainly made from the News the American people perseve at night. News that is no longer carrying News on the progress made in Iraq. If Obama wants to say Iraq is going bad then he needs to back up why.
The_Panda said:
Whether they are right or wrong doesn't matter. It's how many will influence the vote.
Seeing how it didn't influence the vote in 04, I doubt it will now.
The_Panda said:
I don't live in America and I don't plan to; sure it will cause some upset as inevitably any loss does, I just don't think we should stereotype and use this as a basis to launch a slippery slope argument.
Then please look at events that have happened to Blacks in the past ten years. OJ Simpson, Rodney King, the Jena Six. Each one had their problems and were guilty of something. But becuase they were black, becuase there was a brother hood with them. The Black Populous at large stuck with them no matter if they were guily. Riots, Protests, just general unrest happens when a Black Man has something taken away from him by a White Guy/Girl. And neither OJ Simpson, Rodney King, or the Jena Six were running for President.
The_Panda said:
The thing is the people who would be turned away from him probably are already. In addition really only a small proportion of the populace bother to look closely at candidates policies. Rather, it's what is fed to them. For example, if the newspapers were to all cry out loud with "Obama's policies are hot air" as their headlines and slam them in that way, most people would be turned away. They probably wouldn't be able to tell me which policies etc. Same with the situation in NSW at the moment - our state government is in tatters over corruption, the media have latched on, ask most people off the street and they'll tell you it's in ruins but that's it.
Let's face the facts - the majority of people only look at the surface. And above this the majority of people are blinded by the allegiance to one party as well. For example, my grandparents are very much communist (even though they probably wouldn't be able to tell me any one of the communist policies besides those drilled in to them when they were children). When they moved to Australia twenty odd years ago and became citizens, they supported the Australian Labour party, which was at the time more or less socialist. But now they have ignored that the Labour party is even more right wing than the right wing (Liberal) party was when they became citizens. People stick with their opinions and allegiances. Now to Obama - as sad as it is, a lot of people hear the message of "change" and they like it. The common man does not bother to look into what type of change it is. Governments can easily win on absolute hot air promising things they may never achieve. I know of several Australian examples of this, and I'm sure there are more than enough in the US.
The problem with that is Two things.
A: Americans are quickly getting tired of this election, especially the Clinton Versus Obama stuff. The "Change" retoric and Obamamania is starting to deflate very fast in America. ABC News ran a story this morning about how many Americans now just want this thing to get over with. The longer this goes on, the more people will start seeing past the hype and start looking at the real thing.
B: While you are right many choose allegiance, alot of people also look at the policies and experience of the person, especially right before the election. The policies can make or break a person. For example John Kerry lost becuase he had some very liberal and very bad policies. When people look past the hype as is already starting to happen. They begin to start looking at the person's polices. Which Obama completely fails at.
The_Panda said:
The issue is whether others support the war or not. And poll after poll after poll tells us the majority of people are against the war in Iraq. They may be right, they may be wrong. And the majority aren't going to change their minds any time soon.
The majority are also going off what they get from CNN, ABC, NBC, and the rest, which has focused on the Economy and other things since the Surge started to show results.
Obama does have the upper hand in saying that the War is not going well. Becuase that is what the majority people believe. The problem is when it comes to the facts of the war right now. He is absolutely wrong in that statement. And that is where McCain will grill him, and beat him. Becuase Obama just does not have anything to point to and say "This is where the War is doing horribly, and why we should pull out."
The_Panda said:
Oh and an interesting note on foreign policy George Bush hadn't left the US before he became president. He didn't even have a passport. XD (don't bother refuting this. It's a little addition I put after I found it in my "The Bad President" calendar. I doubt it's true, but either way it's ironic).
I can personally assure you that isn't true. Especially since Bush was the Governor of Texas, and thus had to have a International Relationship with Mexico. Really he has had more foreign policy experience through being Governor, than any other Governor right now.