We did see it coming, but since it was only the DNC getting hacked Republicans went "Oh it's totally okay".
Russia is actually running out of cash due to the embargo and more importantly how cheap other countries like Saudi and the US can produce oil and natural gas (along with other raw materials), which make up most of their GDP, about two thirds. Now with their ongoing financial crisis (which was a few months ago), Russia was going to run out of money and have to dip into its pensions sometime in the middle of this year. Their currency fell to 33% of its original value after Ukraine and has stabilized at 50%. Though that stability is extremely tenuous.
The way I read it, Russia is running against the clock and something positive for them has to happen and happen soon. Trump happening is a boon to them as Hillary would have crushed their economy even further and wouldn't have to work hard to do it either due to preexisting conditions. If the embargo is lifted then maybe Russia can make money again, but that's not where the bulk of their money comes from and it may not be able to make up for budgetary shortfalls.
If Russia's financial crisis deepens the oligarchs that Putin once subdued will probably move on him because their economy may collapse. If Putin dies it may turn into a no-**** civil war as there's no clear successor and the democratic process that brought him to power is not really respected, nor should it be as Russia has a democratic history that spans only a few decades as strongmen have dominated the country in one form or another since basically forever.
Russia can't afford a protracted war. It costs too much money and they're not doing well financially. They may not even be able to hold what they grab if they grab too much.
Expect shit to go down with Russia most likely within the next year or two as the pensions piggy bank can only last for so long and it will seriously piss off people who rely on those to survive. Some sort of war either external or internal will probably happen, or if we're lucky just a financial collapse. External if they're ascendant or at least wish to distract from internal problems or internal if Putin dies or loses his mandate to govern when the economy collapses.
If Trump dishonors the NATO alliance I'm not sure what will happen. Not nationally. Not internationally. Nothing. It crushes US credibility abroad however. However due to the separation of powers making war falls directly into Trump's hands. He doesn't have to go to war. It's 100% his choice. It could get him impeached, but I'm not sure if that would happen as the republicans own congress. It depends on what their constituents say.
I may not be getting everything right, but unless someone corrects me I think I've gotten the broad strokes correct.
