So, chances Trump is gonna lose?
We all remember how 2016 turned out...Hillary was leading in the polls through October, then the Comey reopened the investigation into her emails and things went downhill. Many were very angry with how the DNC handled Bernie Sanders. Nobody thought Trump could possibly win, though some spoke of a surprise win, and it happened.
Here we are in 2020. Trump has earned his place in history as the most hated president in modern American history. He's had a number of scandals plaguing his administration. He's lost support due to his handling of COVID-19, BLM, and other things. Biden, like Hillary, is polling well, though he doesn't have any major investigations at the center of the debates. People have had enough and they're more determined to get out and vote to end Trump's presidency.
Best bet is to ignore the polls and vote anyway, and encourage everyone else to vote. 2016 went the way it did because people were so sure the polls would be correct and Trump would lose, but when push came to shove, you had so many people who either didn't vote, or threw away their vote with a third party or joke write-in.
If 2020 is to not be a repeat of 2016, people also need to let go of the idea of ideological purity. In 2016 you saw a lot of the non-voters/throwaway-voters doing so because they didn't like either candidate. In reality, you're probably not ever going to have a candidate whose policies 100% match up with your own, but this also doesn't mean that both candidates are equally bad. Biden's not the first choice for a lot of people (myself included), but he's absolutely a better choice than Trump. I know it leaves a sour taste in one's mouth to have to vote for the lesser of two evils, but the reality is that any vote that isn't for Biden helps Trump. The one thing you can always count on with conservatives if they will always have a high turnout for voting, so if you're serious about wanting him out of office, then actually voting is more important than ever.
A good way to think of it is that casting a vote for a candidate isn't like a marriage, but rather, like selecting a bus. You're not voting for the one perfect match to commit the rest of your life to, you're picking the one that will get you closest to where you want to go.
So don't think of "What are the chances" when it comes to an election. Think of "I will do what I can to make sure this happens", because if you get too complacent because of the polls, then we may see a repeat of 2016.
...Although of course we're all bracing for whatever constitutional crisis we may have after if Trump really does fail to accept the results of the election, especially since the scheme seems to be related to packing the Supreme Court with Trump Bootlickers.