So I created a chart on my predictions for the 2014 governor and senate races, and I know it may be early, but I also have my ridiculously early 2016 and 2014 predictions.
Tossup means I think both sides have an even chance of winning, lean means I think it can go either way, but one side has a slight advantage, likely means one side has a clear advantage, but an upset is possible, and safe means one side is guaranteed a victory. I'm counting the two independent senators as Democrats. Underlined means that the election already happened and I was right. Also, I accidentally left off the 2014 Oregon Senate Race. That should be Safe D. Also, I accidentally placed the Texas governor's race in Likely R, should be Safe
Most of these are pretty obvious, but I'll explain of few of my more unusual choices:
2014 Mississippi Senate (Likely R)
: Mississippi is certainly a very conservative state and Thad Cochran is extremely popular, so why do I have this as competitive? Cochran is very vulnerable to a primary challenge from Chris McDaniel, and the two of them are neck and neck. McDaniel is a far-right, controversial, neo-confederate candidate, and could potentially turn out to be the Todd Akin of this race. Additionally, the Democrats have a very strong candidate in Childers. Childers vs. Cochran would be Safe R, while McDaniel vs. Childers is Lean R.
2014 Alaska Senate Race (Lean D):
Most people have this race as a tossup, but I think that Begich has a better than even chance of winning for a couple of reasons. Of all the red-state democrats running for reelection this year, Begich has clearly run the best campaign and has had a small lead in polling. If only one Red-state democrat survives 2014, it'd be Begich.
2014 Virginia Senate Race (Safe D):
Virginia may be a swing state, but Warner is one of the most popular senators in the country, and despite the media's obsession with the race, there's no indication suggesting that he's at all vulnerable.
2014 New Hampshire Senate Race (Safe D):
This is by far the most overrated race of this cycle. No, Scott Brown does not have a chance of going back to the senate. A Massachusetts senator with a -10 approval rating is not going to be an incumbent with a +15 approval rating who's actually from New Hampshire. Sorry media, but there's no chance for Scott Brown here.
2016 Utah Senate Race (Likely R):
After his role in shutting down the government, Lee's approval rating collapsed. He's probably more vulnerable to a primary from a moderate Republican than he is from a Democrat (which would be poetic justice, because primarying a more moderate Republican was how he got into the Senate in the first place), but I'll keep this as Likely R for now.
2016 Kentucky, Arkansas, and Missouri Senate Races (Likely R):
These three states have one thing in common: they have popular Democratic governor's whose terms expire by 2016. If any of these governors were to make a run, they could make these races competitive
2014 Hawaii Governor Race (Likely D):
Neil Abercrombie has terrible approval ratings, is facing a tough primary, and polling seems to indicate that he's vulnerable. Hawaii is notoriously difficult to poll, making this a hard prediction, so I just picked the safest option and made this Likely D, even if he is running in the most liberal state in the country.