Since there is a lot of disinformation about Ukraine, I think it might be better to clear some things up:
*Primary Russian target remains Eastern Ukraine and Odessa. Most of the actual war is happening there, because most of the Ukrainian troops are situated there, specifically the Azov guys. Russia's primary goal is to take the Black Sea ports and establish a land corridor to Transnistria.
*Secondary Russian target, Kiev, is being surrounded by all sides, but Russia's large convoys have not arrived yet. The current Russian troops situated are largely exploratory troops, which is why there is the illusion of Ukraine winning (yes, Russia is taking insane casualties, but remember, Russian troops' lives literally don't matter). This is another traditional Russian tactic learned from the Turkic peoples and Mongols, as it allows for tactical victory by increasing the casualties from the opposing side at the cost of your own cannon fodder. It worked in the previous Crimean War in the 19th century, it worked in WWII, and it will likely work here.
*While the official position of Russia is to install a pro-Russian regime in Ukraine, most likely outcome is really full annexation at this point. Without permanent Russian presence in Odessa (and I don't mean militarily, I mean demographic change), Russia cannot keep its presence in the Black Sea otherwise, which is absolutely vital for Russia to remain as a global hegemon.
*Russia will not bother with urban warfare, once they have strengthened their positions in the east and in the south, they will move to flattening cities, Chechnya-style. It is a tried and true Russia method of culling the insurgency, and since they are destroying historical buildings (historical RUSSIAN buildings in Ukraine, that is), that is the most likely outcome.
*If somehow Ukraine wins militarily, which is very unlikely, their first objective would be to ethnically cleanse Ukraine of its non-ethnic Ukrainian members, starting from ethnic Russians, then slowly moving on to all the other minorities, Yugoslav Wars-style. This is because the primary fighting force in Ukraine remains the Azov Battalion (since the actual army is busy defending the capital and civilians), and their international fascistic and Islamist allies. So, Zelensky, being Jewish, is kind of f*cked either way.
*The overall war is expected to last a few months, rather than a few weeks, but Ukraine will almost certainly fall by this year, and Russians will move to next target, which will likely be Georgia or Idlib, though that will likely take a few years since Russian economy will be in life support, kept alive by the Chinese. That is saying nothing on the brain drain that will happen in Russia due to internal repression.
Edit:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally
I didn't post this before since I didn't know, but Biden has also declared Colombia a Major non-NATO ally. Biden previously named Qatar as a MNNA a month ago.
Next MNNA is expected to be UAE, though due to the invasion of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland apparently want MNNA status. US will not give them that, obviously, and instead will force them into NATO membership, just like they did with Georgia, Ukraine, and, to lesser extent, Moldova.
This has been a couple of good weeks for arms manufacturing side of US military expansionism, because neo-cons were proven right, which is a relative rarity.
On the whole NATO thing, it is likely Russia will force Serbia to invade Serbian parts of Bosnia and Kosovo, but how successful that will be depends on how the EU and UK can sufficiently bribe Serbia to turn away from Russia. If such a thing happens, US will likely seriously intervene, as Bosnia is the next prospective NATO member in the pipeline.
Edit 2:
Stoltenberg made an unconfirmed but huge personal claim about Russian strikes on NATO supplies violating Article 5. This claim is obviously farcical, since Stoltenberg will soon leave his position to become Norges Bank's governor (Central Bank of Norway, that is), but if it becomes true (and it will not), we are going to see a limited thermonuclear war (though that will likely happen in our lifetimes anyway). Oh joy.
