Hope everyone is open to some news in the U.S. Senate front. Based on what my politically simple mind has read about the important Senate races this cycle, I believe that everyone who does not want to see Mitch McConnell regain control of the Senate should follow the following strategy:
Offense:
Forget about Florida and Texas.
Period. The Democrats are stalling to find viable candidates to challenge Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, and the ship has long sailed for these two states. There is also the fact that FAR too much money has gone in the statewide races there over the past several cycles, and the Democrats have lost way too much ground in several key areas there since 2020. And the Democratic organizations there continue to be unable to reverse these losses. As of now, it is impossible for the necessary infrastructure to be developed in these two large states to make any meaningful differences, let alone score any wins.
Instead, I strongly suggest putting all volunteer time and donations for Ruben Gallego's campaign in Arizona. Kyrsten Sinema is currently launching a re-election campaign as an independent, and she risks splitting the vote and letting a Republican flip her seat. If Ruben Gallego gets enough volunteers and sets up a strong ground game by the end of June, a strong enough case can be made to kick Kyrsten Sinema out of the Arizona Senate race and replace her with a real progressive. This is the
*only* race that should get serious attention on the offense side.
Ruben Gallego's campaign website can be found
here. Anyone who can click the "Get Involved" button and commit to a volunteer event for his campaign has my gratitude.
Defense:
Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Jon Tester in Montana are the key races here, as it is more likely than not that the tipping point for U.S. Senate control comes down to one of these two races. Downballot races are also important at this stage, and strong candidates need to start their campaigns before July to generate the necessary reverse coattail effects to win these states. I would especially like to emphasize making a hard play for Montana's 1st District, as Ryan Zinke only won by 3.1 points last November and failed to get 50% of the vote. Jon Tester will need to win that area by a sizable margin in order to get a fourth term in the Senate.
West Virginia is pretty much an auto-flip, as Jim Justice plans to run for the Senate, which will secure the win for the Republicans there, no matter if Joe Manchin chooses to run for re-election or not.
Besides Ohio and Montana, Michigan also needs some support, as Debbie Stabenow is retiring, leaving behind an open seat that the Republicans are already redoubling their takeover efforts in. Elissa Slotkin seems to have locked up Democratic support there, so it probably would be beneficial to take a look at her campaign to see what kind of help is most beneficial for her.
There are also a large number of Senate seats held by Democrats this cycle that could flip under specific circumstances, so defense should take up 95% of the resources devoted to keeping the Republicans from flipping the Senate. If there is interest here, I can probably shed some light on the current situation on any such state that fits that criteria.
