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U.S. Politics: The Biggest Trade in WNBA History

RileyXY1

Young Battle Trainer
So who’s going to be the candidate? Do they have enough time?
I don't think so. They've effectively ceded the incumbency advantage to the Republicans and unless they pick Kamala Harris the candidate would have to start from scratch. There might also be Republican lawsuits to keep the replacement off the ballot to the point where RFK might have more ballot access than the Democratic nominee. It probably won't be that extreme, as I believe that the only state where they would not be on the ballot is Ohio, where the Ohio Dems would suffer from massive voter apathy as a result of there not being a Democratic Presidential candidate on the ballot and Republicans would be guaranteed to flip the Senate unless the Democrats unseat either Ted Cruz or Rick Scott.
 
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AuraChannelerChris

"What the hell...?"
Honestly, let Kamala take it all so she becomes the first female president.

Or better yet, bring Michelle Obama. She's incredible.
 

RileyXY1

Young Battle Trainer
Honestly, let Kamala take it all so she becomes the first female president.

Or better yet, bring Michelle Obama. She's incredible.
Michelle has no interest in running for any elected office. At this point I'm not sure if the Democrats will even field a candidate.
 

JourneymanN00b

Well-Known Member
So who’s going to be the candidate? Do they have enough time?
Probably Kamala Harris to minimize fundraising and organizational complications.
I don't think so. They've effectively ceded the incumbency advantage to the Republicans and unless they pick Kamala Harris the candidate would have to start from scratch. There might also be Republican lawsuits to keep the replacement off the ballot to the point where RFK might have more ballot access than the Democratic nominee. It probably won't be that extreme, as I believe that the only state where they would not be on the ballot is Ohio, where the Ohio Dems would suffer from massive voter apathy as a result of there not being a Democratic Presidential candidate on the ballot and Republicans would be guaranteed to flip the Senate unless the Democrats unseat either Ted Cruz or Rick Scott.
As angry as I am to say this, I believe there is no path for the Democrats to retain control of the Senate after this year. The Democrats in Florida and Texas underperformed in 2022, and the party leadership in these states are completely unable to rectify these mistakes and are running poor downballot campaigns in too many areas. So, Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are not going anywhere, and I predict that both of them win by at least a 7-point margin.

Then, there’s the Montana trainwreck, where the state legislative campaigns there are nonexistent in too many areas. Out of the campaigns that do exist, many of them are not effectively taking in volunteer feedback and making needed gains in Native American communities. Monica Tranel’s campaign in Montana’s 1st District is a huge offender here. Then, there’s the fact that Montana loves electing Republican criminals like Greg Gianforte, who is going to be re-elected this year by a large margin. Also, the incoming transplants to Montana have a hard right lean, which makes Jon Tester's outsider attacks on Tim Sheehy not as effective as it was on Matt Rosendale. Finally, Jon Tester is consistently running behind in the latest polls by a wide enough margin for the gap to be insurmountable. With all of this, I am predicting that Jon Tester will lose to Tim Sheehy in November. Which along with Jim Justice flipping West Virginia would get the Republicans to 51 Senate seats.

I will say that Ohio could be a bright spot this year, as Sherrod Brown is running ahead of Bernie Moreno despite a plethora of failed attacks from Republicans of all stripes. I am guessing that one of the reasons that JD Vance was chosen as the VP pick was to provide a boost to Bernie Moreno’s campaign. I personally think that is an idiotic choice, as JD Vance’s fundraising and electoral performance is incredibly weak and adds no power to the ticket. If JD Vance *does* become vice president, the Democrats have a very real possibility of flipping his Senate seat in the resulting special election. That is because the Ohio Democrats actually have a decent bench and a reasonable downballot organization. As of now, I think the Democrats hold all of their U.S. House seats, including those represented by Greg Landsman and Emilia Sykes. Either of them would be good statewide candidates in 2026 and beyond should they be re-elected to their current positions.

TLDR: Pride and a refusal to run different candidates at a sooner point in the cycle is going to put this country into a dictatorship hellhole.
 
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Trainer Yusuf

VolcaniNO
Kamala Harris is adopting a pro-crypto stance.

Looks like Democrats are back to Clintonite tech-optimism.
 

Phillies

Well-Known Member
With an opponent as disliked as Trump, they have a better chance than one would think.
That's always been the problem with them running Trump for a 3rd time. By this point everyone either likes him or hates him. There aren't many people in between. That means he has little chance to gain new support. It also doesn't help Trump that Vance has the lowest approval rating for a nominated VP in over 40 years. They are very beatable.
 

RileyXY1

Young Battle Trainer
With an opponent as disliked as Trump, they have a better chance than one would think.
I do have some concerns about Kamala's ability to appeal to working class voters in the Rust Belt, as I'm worried that they'll see her as just a "coastal elitist" and swing harder towards Trump, which would cost her the election. I think that her VP pick needs to appeal to that demographic first and foremost.
 

JourneymanN00b

Well-Known Member
Holy Christ. Tonight, my phone has been blowing up with angry messages from Arizona’s primary results. This is because the Democrats in Arizona’s 1st District nominated the one person who will kill progressive turnout and hurt Ruben Gallego in Arizona's U.S. Senate race: Amish Shah. All of my contacts in the district and myself are furious to see this, as his right-wing history is far too disgusting for any of us to accept.

In recent memory, Amish Shah has:

  • Voted for the orange convict in 2016. I don’t think I need to explain how dreadful his judgment is when it comes to critical and no-brainer decisions like that. Completely inexcusable.
  • Voted for a religious exception for a bill banning LGBTQ+ conversion. The area's transgender activists hate his ass for that and for his dismissive attitude towards them.
  • Voted against access to over-the-counter birth control pills. Given that Dobbs was a huge reason for the Democrats overperforming 2022 in general, this is giving the middle finger to women, and Amish Shah has provided no remorse for that vote.
  • Gotten banned from Democratic strategy meetings after leaking the content from several such meetings to Arizona House Republicans. So, he definitely will kick Congressional Democrats in the nuts by blabbing to the Republicans whenever it suits him.

In short, he is basically the sum of the worst parts of Kyrsten Sinema, and I would not be surprised to see him change parties in the near future if he gets elected to Congress. Nobody I know will volunteer for his general election campaign, and all of my contacts in the area are swearing off the race and looking elsewhere, if they are even interested in volunteering for other causes. I spent the past several hours asking them to either redirect their funds and volunteer time to Curtis Hertel and Kirsten McDonald Rivet’s U.S. House campaigns; Stephanie Simacek, Karen Gresham, and Kelli Butler’s State House campaigns; or Judy Schweibert and Christine Marsh’s State Senate campaigns to try to stem this exodus.

Letting Amish Shah win the nomination is yet another example this cycle of how the Democrats are transforming into the Party Who Cannot Win by nominating horrid candidates in key areas that affect critical races up and down the ballot.

Marlene Galan Woods and Conor O'Callaghan would have been far better choices for this race, as progressives would have no problem donating to their general election campaigns and voting for them in November. But no, too many tone-deaf Democrats thought it would be okay to nominate this backstabber and throw out a House race critical to passing decent legislation. The seat is going to remain on the Republican side of the board for at least several more years to come, either when David Schweikert gets re-elected due to progressives leaving this race blank or when Amish Shah becomes a Republican after he faces the inevitable primary challenge due to the bullshit that he will pull in Congress by betraying the Democrats at exactly the wrong time.



Going up the ballot to the Senate race, Ruben Gallego is still leading Kari Lake in the polls by a slight margin. Kari Lake’s unimpressive showing in tonight’s Republican primary should help Ruben Gallego lock down this race and replace Kyrsten Sinema in the Senate, but I am seriously concerned that the self-inflicted wounds such as the one that Democrats committed in Arizona’s 1st District will decimate progressive turnout in November to a low enough level that will give Kari Lake the win. I am also not sure how much of a boost that Kamala Harris will give Ruben Gallego in Arizona, as she might turn most of her sights towards holding Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.



Due to the shortage of funds that I can spare for donations, the idiotic mistake that happened tonight, and the growing problems taking place in Michigan, I am writing off Arizona’s 1st District and am instead turning my full attention to Michigan’s 7th and 8th districts. In particular, the newest poll in Michigan’s 7th district has Curtis Hertel down to Tom Barrett by seven points, and I am trying to reserve some more time for his volunteer activities to reverse the bleeding.
 

JourneymanN00b

Well-Known Member
To my pleasant surprise, Tim Walz was picked to be Kamala Harris' running mate. This is a good thing, as he is a more solid choice than Josh Shapiro, who was seen as the likeliest Democrat to get the job. Here are a few quick reasons why:

  • He has a good number of relations in Congress from his 12 years as a U.S. Representative. That will be important for getting anything progressive done.
  • He doesn't anger the pro-Palestianian wing as much as Josh Shapiro does. Josh Shapiro came under fire for being pro-Israel, and I believe that alienating the particular vote will make things harder in Michigan than it already is.
  • He will have 6 years of governing experience come the start of 2025. I feel that having at least a full term under your belt is important for successful leadership.
  • Unions leaders like Shawn Fain have been pushing for Tim Walz to get the VP slot. Getting every union vote on Kamala Harris' side is crucial for winning the swing Rust Belt states, and Tim Walz is certainly going to help supercharge this kind of turnout.
  • He's a 24 year veteran and a schoolteacher. Which certainly doesn't hurt the ticket. Hell, it helps the ticket in just the right ways for certain communities that turn out for very specific people.

In my opinion, this is one of the few things that the Democrats have done *right* over the past few years. We are certainly not out of the woods yet, but at least the odds of humanity being saved are now in 50-50 territory right now.


P.S. I would also like to thank Cori Bush for her service in Congress. She lost renomination tonight to Wesley Bell, and from what I have heard, a lot of it was due to being under federal investigation for misusing campaign funds and her bad constituent services. I believe that all politicians should at least make a good faith to listen and respond to the people they are elected to represent and to follow all rules and regulations, so I can understand why this primary loss happened if these claims are true. But since I do not know for sure how true these claims are, I will just say that I enjoyed her personal background (which I learned from the excellent documentary Knock Down the House) and hope that her post-House future is a fruitful one.
 

JourneymanN00b

Well-Known Member

RileyXY1

Young Battle Trainer
Last night Wisconsin voters rejected two ballot initiatives that were obvious GOP power grabs, intended to make it so the Governor (who is a Democrat) would not be able to spend any funding allocated to the state by the federal government without first getting approval from the State Legislature (both chambers have Republican supermajorities).
 

JourneymanN00b

Well-Known Member

Rest in peace Bill Pascrell. He was in and out of intensive care before this, and his recent health news was not encouraging. The New Jersey Democrats will now need to nominate a replacement, just like they did with Donald Payne earlier this year. Prayers to his family.
 

RileyXY1

Young Battle Trainer

Rest in peace Bill Pascrell. He was in and out of intensive care before this, and his recent health news was not encouraging. The New Jersey Democrats will now need to nominate a replacement, just like they did with Donald Payne earlier this year. Prayers to his family.
Ugh. Now that makes three Democratic Congressmembers we've lost this year, and the second from New Jersey. We've already lost Donald Payne Jr. and Shelia Jackson Lee this year.
 

JourneymanN00b

Well-Known Member

4 are dead and and up to 30 are wounded in a Georgia shooting today.

Brian Kemp is already out with the thoughts and prayers schtick. I give him until the rest of the week before he switches to the “get over it” playbook. Truly sad.

Unlike Texas, I *do* think that Georgia has a real chance of electing a decent governor in 2026, if the Democrats there do things right. I have heard that many Georgians are far more receptive in gun control than they were 7 years ago. This is definitely a state that has continued to pleasantly surprise me.
 

JourneymanN00b

Well-Known Member
I say it's about time Kamala Harris cleared the reasonably low bar of going full scorched earth on the orange convict and actually talking about the issues.

It's too bad that we will never be free of that him unless he loses and gets jailed for the rest of his life. He will continue to act like a pathological liar and pull off stunts like that disgraceful assault at the Arlington National Cemetery. It's not funny at all... it's sad and scary. 2016 was truly the year that the worst outcome happened at the worst possible time.
 
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