MLB thread

[woot21]

My bad. I guess I wasn't looking closely. We all make mistakes

Still, this doesn't change what I said before. Zobrist had a down year because he was recovering from a knee injury, which dragged down his defensive rating. It'll all depend on if his knee recover or not. If it does, then Zobrist will be a bargain for the Cubs. If it doesn't, then the price is still about right, given that he's worth $16M this season according to FG.

Now, what you said about bad contracts driving up the prices, while it's true to some extent, it's offset by players producing at an All-Star or even MVP rate for a little over league minimum salaries.

The issue with Zobrist is that he is 35, so he should see a decline in his value, especially on the defensive side of things.

Heyward's contract pretty much sets the stage for $300M deals for Trout and Harper when they hit free agency.

BCVM22, what I'm saying is that Arrieta's side would be insane not to submit a salary in the $20M range for the hearing.

woot21 out dawgs

 

[BCVM22]

Except they would, actually, for a number of reasons.

One, they seldom make it to a hearing. 99% of the time the player and the team work it out before the hearing. The Cubs in particular have had a single arbitration hearing in the last decade or so.

Two, Cy Young or not, you don't go from making $3.6 million as Arrieta did in 2015 to making $20 million the next season. That simply isn't how the system works and both Jake Arrieta and Scott Boras are well aware of that. If they actually tried what you suggested, it would not end up a working effort.

So yes, woot, Arrieta's side would be insane to submit $20 million as an arbitration figure. That's not how the system works. It's not a real idea.

 

[Dr. Cooper]

Cueto went to the Giants for 6 years and $130MM.

 

[Joltik-Kid]

Cueto went to the Giants for 6 years and $130MM.

So the Diamondbacks only needed to chip in an extra 10 million? I guess Cueto knew he wasn't gonna get a better offer at this point

 

[Ilikepiex7]

so many silly baseballs writers thinking the Dodgers should try to trade for insert pitcher here that changes each week but those trades to get pitchers is just impossible seriously teams think they should be able to get Seager, Urias, Pederson, and more of the Dodgers prospects for their pitchers because the Diamondbacks gave up so many of their best prospects for Shelby Miller.

 

[BCVM22]

You can blame the Diamondbacks for surrendering that kind of package for a guy like Shelby Miller. They've skewed the trade market greatly as a result.

 

[ger9119]

Feels like the Diamondbacks will be this years Padres, overspend and make a bunch of trades and then not produce durning the season.

 

[Joltik-Kid]

Feels like the Diamondbacks will be this years Padres, overspend and make a bunch of trades and then not produce durning the season.

I can't see that happening as Pollock and Goldschmidt are proven home grown talent, not to mention Grienke isn't gonna forget how to pitch, especially because he's still in the same division he shut down since 2013... the Padres attempted to recreate an entire team and hope it worked.

 

[ger9119]

I can't see that happening as Pollock and Goldschmidt are proven home grown talent, not to mention Grienke isn't gonna forget how to pitch, especially because he's still in the same division he shut down since 2013... the Padres attempted to recreate an entire team and hope it worked.

I think there's a big difference with pitching a bulk of your starts in LA compared to pitching in Arizona, Pollack and Goldschmidt are great but there's the Shelby Miller deal that was questionable.

 

[Ilikepiex7]

So Dodgers got Scott Kazmir and looks like they are going to start the year with a rotation of 5 left handed starting pitchers at the moment but they are still trying to get more pitching lol.

edit: they just got that Japanese right hander Kenta Maeda that ends the all lefty rotation

 

[Joltik-Kid]

Huh, surprised no one mentioned Chapman to the Yankee's (unless I missed it). That Bullpen is an embarrassment of riches now I guess... although that rotation is still pretty awful looking.

Anyway, I wonder if Nat's fans are happy Storen's gone or upset because that almost guarantee's Papelbon is staying to be their closer.

I think there's a big difference with pitching a bulk of your starts in LA compared to pitching in Arizona, Pollack and Goldschmidt are great but there's the Shelby Miller deal that was questionable.

Let's see it play out, maybe it's as you say, maybe they rock the NL West

 

[woot21]

Justin Upton, a guy who had a sub-.800 OPS last year, is getting $22M+ a year, for 6 years., going into his age 28 season. At this point Trout and Harper are inline for somewhere between $35-40M/year. McCutchen should get $30M+. With Cespedes getting 6 years and $25M. I know BCVM is going disagree with me, but this is ridiculous. The salaries are getting way out of control, the luxury tax isn't the deterrent it was meant to be to spend obscene amounts on players. And this does affect fans, a lot. Ticket prices will continue to rise so teams can afford these players. As it is now baseball is one of the few major sports that is still affordable, along with college football, but that could be changing soon.

EDIT: Looking at his stats Pedro Alvarez should get a $15M+ contract, at least, based on what other guys are getting. The guy is a legitimate threat to hit 35-40 home runs if he gets 550 PA. And he is not worth that much, but based on the market that deals like Heyward, Upton, Gordon, Zobrist, etc. have created he should get that much.

woot21 out dawgs

 

[BCVM22]

That's not how the business side works - the owner or business president of the team doesn't tell the baseball ops staff, "you can sign this guy but it means we raise ticket prices by 10% next season." Ticket prices go up regardless of player salaries. It is only the most downtrodden of organizations that don't increase their ticket prices by at least a small percentage annually.

Looking at his stats Pedro Alvarez should get a $15M+ contract, at least, based on what other guys are getting. The guy is a legitimate threat to hit 35-40 home runs if he gets 550 PA. And he is not worth that much, but based on the market that deals like Heyward, Upton, Gordon, Zobrist, etc. have created he should get that much.

The funny thing here is that you're wrong, but you're right. No, Alvarez wouldn't get $15 million annually, because if you're doing these calculations in a straight formula of "Player A had these offensive numbers, compared to Player B, so he should get the same/more money," you're doing it entirely wrong. But yes, Alvarez is a power threat. He's a deeply flawed one given his contact issues, but this is 2016. You can be soundly mediocre ("a reliable innings eater") like Mike Leake or Ian Kennedy and your going rate is still 4-5 years, $60-70 million. That's the price of a player these days. No, Alvarez isn't worth that money, but some team might look at the power and give him 2 years, $16 million to try and hit home runs for them. It's not "ridiculous," that's reality. That's the market in 2016.

Now, if you want to be the team that takes a principled stand against these salaries, good for you, but you better be damn sure that you can still find the right players in mid-level/bargain bin free agency and that your farm system is going to produce for you. And it's impossible to be "damn sure" enough to rely solely on that.

 

[Joltik-Kid]

Even with KC backing him, what exactly are the odds Kennedy uses his opt out clause after 2 seasons? He'd have to get a Cy Young award for anyone to pay him more then what the Royals are paying him.

Upton's contract makes some sense thanks to his consistency through out his career... Davis gettin 161/7 years is the real killer of a contract

 

[Pikachu Fan Number Nine]

Spring training is on the horizon. Which means baseball is almost back.

EDIT:

World Series odds have been released. I find it perplexing that the Mets have higher odds than the Yankees. But of course, the Cubs have the best odds. If the Yankees somehow don't make it to the World Series I want the Cubs to win. I'm also going to be bold and say that the Mets lose 130 games this year. More than their expansion year of 1962. It's not a coincidence that my mother, who walked out on my family over a year ago, was born the same year that the Mets began play. And if the Red Sox stay in last too, I'll be happy in that regard as well.

I really think Don Mattingly is making a mistake going to Miami, and Ichiro is making a mistake staying in Miami. Sure the Heat are on the rebound and all of a sudden the Florida Panthers are having a good season, but let's be realistic - the Marlins are nowhere near playoff material. If the Marlins are far out of contention by the trade deadline, Ichiro should request a trade to a contender so he has a better chance of retiring a champion (like, ugh, Peyton Manning but unlike Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter), if this proves to be his last season. There is precedent for such a move: in 2000, in the NHL, with the Boston Bruins out of playoff contention, longtime franchise star Ray Bourque requested a trade to a team with a good chance of winning the Stanley Cup - he went to the Colorado Avalanche. A year later, the Avalanche won the Stanley Cup and Bourque retired a champion.

 

[Vernikova]

The Yankees will win it this year, so you should bet on them now.

 

[Joltik-Kid]

I'd love to know what stuff USA Today was high on with their positioning selections... But I digress.